http://www.toonaripost.com/2011/09/us-news/are-all-odds-against-obama-in-2012/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=are-all-odds-against-obama-in-2012 Grassroots Journalists, Bloggers and Experts capture and report news from around the world. Become a citizen journalist with Toonari Post today! Tue, 21 May 2013 08:44:48 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 http://www.toonaripost.com/2011/09/us-news/are-all-odds-against-obama-in-2012/#comment-11673 Steve Johnson Fri, 14 Sep 2012 06:27:57 +0000 http://www.toonaripost.com/?p=12736#comment-11673 The polls and the odds have a fundamental conflict. I think it’s because pollsters like to use the best turnout results from the last electtion.. Those results color the forecasts with a historic bias. How can anyone correct for historical high turnout levels? They can’t. Well, not without a crystal ball. So 2012 polls are biased by the past. Obama polls run hot because of that. Romney voters probably won’t poll hot for the same kinds of reasons. So, Obama polls are better than expected…that would be another example of the power of incumbency. I don’t think odds makers work that way.

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