Two new polls have appeared demonstrating the same thing: Obama is still slightly ahead of Romney. The surveys have been elaborated by AP-GfK and The Wall Street Journal/NBC News. Not even the nomination of Paul Ryan as Romney’s running mate has made the Republican comeback a sure thing, but Republicans still hope their Tampa Convention will turn things around.

The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows the Obama-Biden ticket has the support of 48 percent of registered voters ,and the Romney-Ryan ticket gets 44 percent.

In the July poll the results were almost the same. Let’s remember that during that month Ryan had not yet been designated as Romney’s running mate. The Obama-Biden ticket had 49 percent of registered voters’ support, and Romney had 43 percent. Even through all of the Republican effort, only a slight difference has been seen in the polls from July to August.

Romney’s tax record, and his Medicare plan, which is not popular, is costing him serious trouble. These are the main issues he must solve to have a serious comeback opportunity. President Obama, on the other hand, is having trouble with the unemployment rate and the nation’s direction; he must convince the voters that in four more years he will be able to take the country in the right direction.

But not all of the polls look negative for Romney. If you consider just 12 key state battle grounds: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin, Obama’s advantage over Romney has gotten smaller. He now leads 49 to 46 percent, when in the same poll on June and July he had an 8 percent advantage in these same key state battlegrounds.

Obama still has minorities’ support; Hispanics and African Americans are behind him. So are women, which makes it seem that the Democrat’s campaigning regarding Republicans’ war with women has succeeded.  Romney is leading Obama on white, rural and senior voters, respectively.

The AP-GfK poll shows similar results. One of the poll’s results worthy of consideration is that amongst people who think Medicare is a very important issue, 49 percent would vote for Obama and 44 percent for Romney. This proves that Obama’s Medicare plan is more popular. On the other hand, voters still think Romney is more capable of handling the economy, 48 percent favor him and 44 percent favor Obama.

According to this poll Obama is also seen as much more capable of handling social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage, 54 percent of them think Obama is much more capable of handling abortion, while only 33 percent think Romney is more capable.

Obama is also seen as a strong, honest and trustworthy leader, whilst Mitt Romney needs to work on his personal image in order to have a serious chance of winning this election.

Republicans are hoping their Tampa Convention will make them jump in the polls. They have prepared a Convention with speakers that could turn things around, like Chris Christie (key-note speaker) or Marco Rubio (who will introduce Mitt Romney). Also, the Convention will be an opportunity for Romney to work on his personal image and for people to know Paul Ryan’s proposals firsthand.

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About the author

Gerardo Jose Torres Montalvo
Student of Philosophy and Journalism in Universidad de Navarra, Spain. Interested in world politics, especially in Latin American issue and in political philosophy. I was born in the United States, but raised in El Salvador.

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