The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880, according to NASA scientists. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the ten warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.

NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, which monitors global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated analysis that shows temperatures around the globe in 2011 compared to the average global temperature from the mid-20th century. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F (0.51 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.

“We know the planet is absorbing more energy than it is emitting,” said GISS director James E. Hansen. “So we are continuing to see a trend toward higher temperatures. Even with the cooling effects of a strong La Nina influence and low solar activity for the past several years, 2011 was one of the ten warmest years on record.”

The difference between 2011 and the warmest year in the GISS record (2010) is 0.22 degrees F (0.12 C). This underscores the emphasis scientists put on the long-term trend of global temperature rise. Because of the large natural variability of climate, scientists do not expect temperatures to rise consistently year after year. However, they do expect a continuing temperature rise over decades.

The first 11 years of the 21st century experienced notably higher temperatures compared to the middle and late 20th century, Hansen said. The only year from the 20th century in the top 10 warmest years on record is 1998.

Higher temperatures today are largely sustained by increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide. These gases absorb infrared radiation emitted by Earth and release that energy into the atmosphere rather than allowing it to escape to space. As their atmospheric concentration has increased, the amount of energy “trapped” by these gases has led to higher temperatures.

The carbon dioxide level in the atmosphere was about 285 parts per million in 1880, when the GISS global temperature record begins. By 1960, the average concentration had risen to about 315 parts per million. Today it exceeds 390 parts per million and continues to rise at an accelerating pace.

The temperature analysis produced at GISS is compiled from weather data from more than 1,000 meteorological stations around the world, satellite observations of sea surface temperature, and Antarctic research station measurements. A publicly available computer program is used to calculate the difference between surface temperature in a given month and the average temperature for the same place during 1951 to 1980. This three-decade period functions as a baseline for the analysis.

The resulting temperature record is very close to analysis by the Met Office Hadley Centre in the United Kingdom and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

Hansen said he expects record-breaking global average temperature in the next two to three years because solar activity is on the upswing, and the next El Nino will increase tropical Pacific temperatures. The warmest years on record were 2005 and 2010, in a virtual tie.

“It’s always dangerous to make predictions about El Nino, but it’s safe to say we’ll see one in the next three years,” Hansen said. “It won’t take a very strong El Nino to push temperatures above 2010.”

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Countries across the world are currently experiencing extreme weather and droughts. The largest freshwater lake in China is at its lowest water levels for years thanks to a drought, according to state officials and media. The shrinking lake does not bode well for fishermen who rely on it for their livelihoods and for the local ecology.

The Xinhua news agency stated that Poyang Lake, located in East China’s Jiangxi province, is shrinking quickly and has experienced over a decade-long dry spell. This is due to the Gan River, which is connected to the lake, not receiving enough rain and causing the water levels to hit record lows. “This year’s level is very low,” an anonymous official declared, affirming that the rainfall for the area was 65 percent less than average for December.

Texas is also experiencing its worst drought on record. The year 2011 was the driest ever for the state, says the National Weather Service, and it was the second hottest. Meteorologists do not believe this will improve for the year 2012 and the result will be further restrictions on water and the death of millions of trees. Lake Lavon has shrunk by 12 feet due to North Texas’ lack of rain and record-setting heat. “It is a challenging time, especially to bring awareness to our consumers and businesses how critical our drought has impacted our reservoirs,” stated Denise Hickey, spokesperson for the North Texas Municipal Water District. “As we’re planning to move through this drought period, we’re also planning and initiating additional strategies to bring additional sources online.” The Texas Forest Service believes that so far, the severe drought has killed 500 million trees.

In Latin America, nations have also been dealing with a plethora of problems stemming from the extreme weather, including wildfires, droughts, and floods. Many have wondered if climate change and global warming are responsible for the unusual weather and according to experts, this is most likely the case. Chile experienced an uncharacteristic heat wave, which resulted in rampant burning wildfires, while Northern Mexico has been dealing with its worst drought in 70 years.

On the other hand, Colombia has had two seasons of heavy rain, which has killed 182 people and resulted in about $2 billion in damage. A rose farm in a Colombian town named Chia sustained an estimated $6 million dollars in damages from the April and December floods. Javier Castellanos, the rose farm manager, stated, “Never in the history of this farm- and it’s a business with 30 years in the market- have we ever had any such problem.” Researchers assert that Latin America is at more risk to the extreme weather changes worsening in the future than any other region in the world because of deforestation and its sprawling construction. These elements cause it to be more vulnerable to landslides and flooding.

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