As of July 1, new sanctions against Iran are taking effect, effectively banning crude oil imports to the EU, which accounts for some 18% of Iranian crude oil exports. These new sanctions are coming into play as talks between the Iranian regime and the so called P5+1 nations (the U.S., U.K., China, Russia, and France plus Germany) are not making much headway.

Neither the May 23 meeting in Bagdad nor the June 23 meeting in Moscow resulted in anything substantial. Arguably, Iran is moving closer to the “point of no return” with threats being handed out on all sides and the rhetoric growing fiercer. Although a military solution seems to become more and more likely, there are compelling reasons why an air strike should be avoided at all costs.

An air strike on Iran is neither going be as easy as the Israeli strike on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981, nor the strike on Syria’s reactor near al-Kibar in 2007. Iran, having learned a lesson or two from history, has gone to great lengths to protect their enrichment plants – spread out all over Iran – composing at least a dozen different sites. A top US air-force planner estimates that at least 400 targets would have to be hit, and that at least 75 would require the use of penetrating munitions (such as so called “bunker buster bombs”).

Furthermore, these sites are buried deep under ground, (such as the enrichment plant at Fordow which is located under a mountain), and are protected by sophisticated Russian-made air defence systems.

The air strike would have to be massive, continuous and surgical – and the problem is, it would do nothing but postpone the Iranian nuclear venture, (with some 2-5 years according to analysts). And detriment to the whole cause, a strike would naturally add enormous incentive for Iran to actually acquire the bomb, instead of keeping to peaceful uranium enrichment.

Following an Israeli strike, the Iranians would undoubtedly counterattack. Such a strike would be delivered both by means of conventional weapons such as ballistic missiles towards Israel (Iran has got the biggest stock of ballistic missiles in the Middle East), and also by the use of proxy forces such as Hezbollah who could target Israel with rocket strikes from the neighbouring Lebanon.

Other notable proxy strikes would come from the powerful warlord Moqtada al-Sadr, commander of the Shiite Mahdi Army, who’s openly promised to strike back at U.S. coalition forces in Iraq in the case of a U.S./Israeli strike against Iran.

If such a scenario unfolds, the U.S. would undoubtedly launch its own strike against Iran. The U.S., having built up a presence of some 125,000 troops in close proximity to Iran according to recent CENTCOM figures have the ability to hit some 10,000 targets inside Iran overnight.

However, the aftermath of a potential U.S. strike could prove to be very dangerous, as it would galvanize the other pro-Iranian powerhouses China and Russia, active in the region, and, in a worst case scenario, spark a new cold war.

Furthermore, a U.S. strike would have to be continuous and conducted over a long time span, in order to quell any resumed Iranian nuclear efforts, putting further strain on an already badly overstretched U.S. army, not to mention its economy. And all the while, soaring global oil prices would put the final nail in the coffin of an already badly beaten Western economy.

This is simply a scenario, but makes a rather convincing case why a military strike should be avoided at all costs. But amidst the threats and the gloomy outlooks, there are some positive notions.

Although the conflict has seen some escalations, such as cyber attacks on Iranian enrichment plants, as well as several mysterious and dramatic deaths of leading Iranian nuclear scientists, it has mostly been a war of words up to this point.

Historically, Israel has shown that when they are really intent on striking, such as in the cases of Iraq and Syria, it was done in the quiet, without any warning. The current amount of warnings and threats is thus a sign that Israel is content at keeping it “a war of words,” at least for now. But this rather precarious stalemate is not going to last forever.

Image Courtesy of  Mahmoud Ahmadinejar 

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America’s most famous bugle call “lights out” commonly known as Taps turns 150-years-old on Saturday. Still sounded every night at American military bases around the world, Taps is also sounded at the funerals of American military personnel, wreath-laying ceremonies, and memorial services.

Taps has a long and interesting history. The military units of many countries have a “lights out” call that may or may not be also sounded at funerals, but Taps is uniquely American.

The call to “extinguish lights” at the end of the day has been part of the American military for generations. Especially important when timepieces were few and far between, the “day is done” signal was an integral part of the day on the battlefield. Originally, the American “lights out” signal was sounded in Silas Casey’s “Tactics”—a tune that was borrowed from the French military.  American Civil War, Union side General Daniel Butterfield was displeased with “Tactics” believing it to be too formal. Aided by brigade bugler Oliver Willcox Norton, they wrote the tune Taps to honor the men with an air that conveyed a more pleasant atmosphere. In a letter written by Norton to the magazine August Century, Norton told the story of how Taps came to be written.

The tune was written following the Seven Days Battle, part of the Peninsular Campaign where the soldiers were encamped at Harrison’s Landing Virginia. The call was sounded for the first time in July of 1862. From that night forward, the new “day is done” call spread quickly. Following that first monumental call, Norton was besieged by requests from other buglers asking for copies of the music to the tune. Norton gladly provided the music and the signal was heard and copied in all of the various locations occupied by the Union Army. As the Confederacy used the same drill manuals as the Union, they were using “Tactics” as their “lights out” signal as well. Upon hearing the new signal, the Confederate army began to use it also thereby providing a commonality between the two armies that had previously ceased to exist.

Several commemorative activities are taking place around the country with the largest taking place at Arlington National Cemetery in Virginia. Here, beginning at 10:00AM, Taps will be played by a mass of buglers and then again at 12:00PM in several locations around the cemetery.

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