The problems in Spain cannot be denied any longer. In fact, the crisis that hit the Eurozone is something that cannot be hidden.

Since the credit crisis that began in the U.S. a few years ago, countries and their banks have fallen like trees, showing black holes that had been hiding for years, as well as very bad practices that did nothing but make what was already a big problem worse.

Now that the complete rescue is about to come to Spain– the first one was only for the banks, although it counts as government debt– many authors and writers of Spanish newspapers question the competence of the European Central Bank (ECB), and wonder what prevents the ECB from saving us from total disaster by buying public debt of states that are worse off. In these writers’ speeches they explain that the ECB should act as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and provide financial resources to those who need it.

Are they wrong asking for this? Absolutely. The answer to the question of why the ECB does not act as the IMF is this one: because they are not the same. Despite the fact that, apparently, both agencies have similarities, the truth is the objectives for which they were created are completely different in each one, and the way they respond is not the same. That is why it is advisable to make a couple of clarifications on the differences between the two entities, in order to understand why the ECB is not a “European IMF.” It was not intended to be one.

The IMF was created in a completely different context, when the consequences of the Great Depression could be still felt. Its creation reflected the attempt of several countries to avoid repeating the disastrous measures that weakened economic activity during those years.

Meanwhile, the ECB, successor to the European Monetary Institute, was created in 1998, but it did not make full use of its powers until the entry of the euro in 1999. The creation, established in the Maastricht Treaty, responded first to the oversight of the transition of member countries from their national currencies to the euro and, second,  the need for the existence of a bank for this currency.

With these completely different contexts it is logical that the objectives of both entities are not the same. Thus, the main function of the IMF is to oversee the smooth running of international economic policy, and to encourage it, acting as a fund where countries can ask for help when they need temporary financing.

However, the main objective of the ECB is to maintain the price stability in the euro area by maintaining the inflation at low levels, leaving other objectives subordinates to this first and foremost. Broadly speaking, it seems that we can define the IMF as a fund that lends money to countries who need it, and the ECB as that one who ensures the proper functioning of the Eurozone. So, the role of the first one is active, while the second one’s role is rather passive.

Now the big question is: if the euro is not working properly and there is a risk of its disappearance, can the ECB not protect it through the purchase of public debt? The answer is, again, no. Why? Because of the statutes which regulate it.

Since it was created, the ECB defined itself as completely independent from the member countries of the Eurozone– which has been questioned in recent years, especially by the suspect origin of the last directors of the ECB– and the measures should not respond to the national interests of any country. In the same way, the European institutions and national governments are required to respect this independence, and this means that there is no mechanism by which a member state may compel the ECB to act in one way or another.

This is the main reason why the ECB cannot rescue any Eurozone country. Besides this, there is another powerful reason that we forget sometimes: the conditions for being a member of the Eurozone are strict. It is not enough to wish to adopt the currency, there are steps to follow before completing the transition.

The ECB is responsible for safeguarding the proper functioning of the euro because it assumes that other institutions– created for that purpose– have been responsible for verifying that the candidates have the specific requirements for entry. If someone has not, whose fault is it then?

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Spain has received a 100 billion euro ($125 billion) after denying it needed it for several weeks. Although the announcement of the bailout originally had the global markets opening high, the uncertainty surrounding the details and implications of this bailout have caused the enthusiasm to disappear. Investors are still worried about spending money on Spain and they are also worried about what this bailout means for Italy.

The rating agency, Fitch downgraded Santander and BBVA – two of Spain’s largest banks – from As to BBB+s. This downgrade, in addition to uncertainty in the markets has caused investors to sit on their money rather than risk spending it. Fitch claimed the lower rating was caused by its worries that Spain will “remain in recession through the remainder of this year and 2013 compared to the previous expectation that the economy would benefit from a mild recovery in 2013 which directly affects the banks’ volumes of activities in Spain.”

The exact amount of emergency funds for Spain are still unknown, but the amount will be announced later in June after the Spanish banks have been audited. Many Spaniards were surprised about the bailout after their government insisted it did not need the money. There were several demonstrations on June 10 against the bailout after the announcement was made.

The Spanish government insists that the banks are the ones that need the bailout and are receiving the bailout, not the government itself. However, the bailout money cannot go directly to the banks, as Spain wants it to be, and must go through the Spanish government. A troika will also be created to oversee the financial management of the money in Spain just like in the bailouts for the Republic of Ireland, Greece and Portugal.

The bailout was meant to alleviate the concerns within financial markets that Spain itself was unstable and would go down with its banks. According to Richard Hunter of Hargreaves Lansdown stockbrokers, “some much-needed time has now been bought in Spain, which will allow the market an – at least temporary – sigh of relief.” However, the bailout seems to be its own worst enemy. The uncertainty surrounding the exact amount, the outcome and the mechanism of the bailout have not led to more investing.

Most of the bailout funds will come from the newly founded European Stability Mechanism that was formed specifically to help alleviate the Eurozone crisis. The funds are considered a loan that the Spanish government will eventually have to pay back, meaning this bailout makes Spain even more in debt. However, the fund itself will be considered a “senior” creditor which means that it will be paid back first if Spain defaults on its loan. Many investors are worried that they will not get paid back if they invest in Spain by buying its government bonds because everyone would be second to the Mechanism fund. Therefore, the Spanish bonds that were over 6% previous to the bailout are now almost up to 6.5% after the bailout according to the BBC.

Spain was still unsure about receiving a bailout but European finance officials pushed Spain into receiving help for its banks.

Moody’s rating agency has also said that Spain’s banking problem, “is not likely to be a major source of contagion to other euro area countries, except for Italy.”

 Italy

Many are now worried that if Spain’s bailout does not succeed, Italy may be next to need help – if it’s not already too late. Italian bonds are up to 6%, meaning that investors see these bonds as high risk. The Italian GDP dropped 0.8% in the first quarter of this year whereas Spain’s only dropped 0.4%. Most predictions show the Italian economy shrinking at least another 1.5% this year. This is Italy’s fourth recession since 2001 and consumer spending and exports are down.

The Italian government has recently been practicing austerity measures under the government of Prime Minister Mario Monti. The Italian Economic Development Minister, Corrado Passera stated, “this great discipline that we have imposed on ourselves in terms of public finances makes us one of the countries best equipped to confront the financial turbulence that Europe finds itself in today.” Passera also claimed, “in the past months, Italy has done, from a financial point of view, everything that needed doing to save itself.”

Italy currently relies heavily on funding from the European Central Bank, which could hurt it in the long run. However, Italian banks have not suffered as much as Spanish banks because they did not suffer from the same housing bubble. Italy’s unemployment rate is also half of Spain’s and its borrowing costs are lower. Italy’s deficit for this year is lower than Spain’s but its overall debt is higher. Still, Italy is in a fragile position.

Sovereign debt expert Nicholas Spiro has warned that too many are linking Spain’s problems to Italy. “Where Spain goes, there is the perception that Italy will follow, which is terrible because it is like comparing apples and pears.” Spiro claimed that Italy’s economy was “infinitely better” than Spain’s, particularly because Italy did not have to deal with the same housing crisis as Spain.

Although it looks as though Italy may save itself, investors are still too skittish. Currently many reforms are still necessary and will have to be passed over the next year. Prime Minister Monti had the support to push through these reforms but he seems to be quickly losing it.

Monti and newly elected French President Francois Hollande are both in favor of Eurobonds, bonds that are guaranteed by all of the Eurozone. These Eurobonds would help alleviate Italy’s debt and would mean its bonds would not be as high a risk to investors. Hollande and Monti will meet on June 14 to discuss the possibility of Eurobonds. However, Merkel has already announced that she is against them and Germany’s support will be necessary for Eurobonds to be successful at all.

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with the English Prime Minister David Cameron to discuss the Eurozone crisis. Both leaders support a two-speed approach to the future of Europe.

Several leaders outside of the Eurozone, such as U.S. President Barack Obama, have urged Germany and the other participating nations to take immediate action on the crisis. Cameron stated, “I’m very clear that urgent action is needed to deal with the market uncertainty… [it] is about building firewalls and recapitalizing the banks.” Although Cameron has urged the Eurozone to solve this crisis, he has made it quite clear that he expects them to solve their own problems.

The United Kingdom and Denmark, although members of the European Union, negotiated agreements in 1992 to be excluded from the euro. Both countries wanted to maintain their own currency, which now appears to have been the best course of action.

Merkel has already admitted that the Eurozone crisis has been building over the last ten years and will not be solved in a day. Merkel stated, “now it will also take a few years to get things right again.”

Many economic experts have claimed that the Eurozone structure is faulty because seventeen nations are connected through a currency but are not coordinated with their budget plans. This lack of budget coordination is not a problem until a crisis such as the 2008 recession arises; now the weaker economies are dragging down the whole system. Merkel agrees that something must be done to integrate these nations better. “We need more Europe, we need not only a monetary union, but we also need a so-called fiscal union, in other words more joint budget policy,” she said.

European Union officials in Brussels want Germany, the strongest economy in the Union, to accept jointly guaranteed European debt and allow the European Central Bank to issue eurobonds. These eurobonds would help to regain some of the debt for the other countries as well as Germany, but Merkel worries that issuing these eurobonds would harm the German people and the German economy more. Before any kind of fiscal union is created in Europe, Merkel is insistent that there needs to be more stability from other European Union countries. Some experts claim that the integration cannot wait.

Another suggestion from the European Commission and European Central Bank is the creation of a central banking authority that would help alleviate concerns of excessive debt. Currently, Spain’s finance minister has claimed that credit markets are “effectively shut” to Spain at this time, making it impossible for them to get the billions in euros to rescue their banks. As of 6 June 2012, the European Commission has announced a plan for a “bank union” in Europe that would make it easier for countries like Spain to get credit.

Although many worry that Spain will need a bailout, Spain insists that they will not. Merkel has stated that Germany will not pressure Spain to take a bailout although the funds will be there if they are necessary.

The European Central Bank cannot provide bailouts due to the ‘no bailout’ clause of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. However, starting in July there will be a 500 billion euro rescue fund known as the European Stability Mechanism.

Merkel has insisted on austerity measures in bailout countries such as Greece, but these measures have been met with great opposition. Many claim that what governments should be focusing on is growth. Merkel claims, “budget consolidation [aka austerity measures] and growth are two sides of one and the same coin.”

Currently a budget-discipline agreement is being discussed across Europe and has already been ratified in some countries. The Irish referendum vote in the previous week affirmed the agreement. Merkel’s coalition government in the German Parliament is working to get the two-thirds majority necessary to approve the agreement. However, the opposition party – which believes the debt crisis can only be solved by spending for growth – has also requested a financial transaction tax be added to the agreement or at least followed by Germany.

The United Kingdom, with London being the biggest financial center in Europe, is opposed to a Europe-wide financial transaction tax. Cameron stated that the tax would “simply [draw] those transactions offshore and to other places.”

On 7 June 2012 Merkel stated, “we need a political union first and foremost… step by step we must from now on give up more competences to Europe, and allow Europe more powers of control.” Although Cameron agrees that the Eurozone must become more integrated financially, his country is not a member of the Eurozone and would not have to deal with the consequences.

After meeting with Cameron, Merkel announced that she is tolerant of a ‘two-speed’ Europe, meaning that while the current Eurozone countries become more integrated fiscally and politically, other countries such as Denmark and the United Kingdom that use their own currency would still be a part of the Union but relegated to the edges. Merkel claims, “we have to be open. We always have to make it possible for everyone [to join]… but we must not stop because one or the other don’t want to come along just yet.”

Merkel says that one of the greatest aids for the European Union countries is to become more competitive. She claims that the economies will improve when they begin producing more on the global market.

An EU summit is planned for later in June and the leaders will discuss plans for a political union. However, according to Merkel, the decision and the arrangements will not be completed in one summit and more meetings will have to be planned.

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The 57^th annual Eurovision song contest occurred earlier this month in Baku, Azerbaijan. Like every year, the 2012 competition was a predictably showy camp-fest that featured prominent artists from a host of European countries competing within the realm of song and dance. The elected winner was Swedish songstress Loreen whose capoeira inspired act brought Sweden the honor of hosting the competition next year.

Despite the escapist themes of many Eurovision submissions, however, the event does not take place in a vacuum. This year, the financial crisis of the European economy had a noticeable impact on the purely European song contest.

Rambo Amadeus, the Montenegrin entry and a popular musical satirist, brought the economic situation to the fore with his song “Euro Nero” whose chorus features lyrics such as “give me chance to refinance” and “monetary break dance.” While the middle-aged performer and his symbolic trojan horse did not make it to the final stage of the competition, his witty rapping hinted at some of the considerations that would constitute the majority of the scandal surrounding the show as a whole.

In its preamble to the broadcast of the annual show, the international media doggedly introduced and reintroduced the question of who, should they win, would be fiscally capable of hosting Eurovision next year and whether this would effect the quality of contestants. One of the greatest conspiracy theories leading up to the competition was the rumor that the Spanish contestant, Pastora Soler, had been instructed to lose. The Herald Sun reports that Soler allegedly said “I think it is not the moment, neither for Spain nor for the Spanish public, to win Eurovision.” This claim was later denied by the singer herself.

Many felt that the participation of Eleftheria Eleftheriou for Greece, the country that has perhaps been most affected by the devaluing of the Euro, demonstrated a lack of economic responsibility on the part of the country’s politicians. Others argued that this was a necessary boost to Greek moral. Still others felt that the voting aspect of Eurovision would be used as an opportunity for countries to ally themselves. In particular, many believed that Greece might use Eurovision to influence Germany’s decision to spearhead an economic bailout.

Post-Eurovision, it is clear that the motivation for individual country’s voting was vastly more complicated than had been suspected. While many countries, including Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland, did vote along the lines of natural economic and political alliances, both Greece and Germany awarded each other zero points. Far from their original hypotheses of mutual understanding expressed through song approval, theorists now view the peculiar voting habits of this pair of countries as a kind of complicit revenge tactic or, as Charles Robinson explains in the Wall Street Journal, a form of “protest”.

Fortunately, Sweden, the eventual winner, appears to be fully capable of hosting Eurovision 2013 and has managed to escape relatively unscathed from the political furore that has surrounded some of its compatriot countries. What social changes might occur between then and now to reshape the complexion of this contest remains to be seen.

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Paul Krugman, one of the most famous economists in the world, recently claimed in an interview with the BBC that Greece’s best option is to leave the Euro. Krugman stated, “Greece was seriously, seriously irresponsible even during the good years.” He compared Greece’s spending to those of the US and other European nations and claimed that the irresponsible spending was “not to the same extent.”

Krugman explained that the problem for Greece is that it cannot print its own money which gives it an “enormous vulnerability.” Therefore Greece has two options: accept the demands that Germany is imposing on them in regards to lending or to leave the Euro. Krugman declared, “Greece must and will leave the Euro.”

However, Krugman also points out that it is difficult for any Greek politician to say that Greece should leave. In fact, Krugman believes “whoever says, ‘that’s it’ will have ended his career.” According to Krugman, Greece leaving the Euro could happen in a couple of weeks depending on the outcome of the Greek elections. The other option is that the European banks will eventually refuse to lend to Greece which will force it to create its own currency again.

Ultimately Krugman claims that this is the most desirable thing for the Greeks and for everyone else in the Eurozone. He believes that the main ramification will be the fact that the Euro membership is reversible. The greatest worry is that there will be a run on the Spanish and Italian banks. However, as long as the European Central Bank is willing to supply the Euros for this run there should not be a major problem.

In another interview with the Independent, Krugman also went more in depth as to who should be blamed for the Eurozone crisis. Krugman believes that the Maastricht Treaty of 1992 is what originally caused this crisis because it led the way for the use of a single currency in Europe.

Michalis Sarris, chairman of the Cyprus Popular Bank also commented on the possibility of Greece leaving the Euro on 17 May 2012. Sarris claimed that Greece leaving the Euro was not “inevitable” but was a “clear possibility.”

 Ultimately Cyprus hopes that Greece will recover without leaving the Euro because many of its finances are tied up in Greek investments. Sarris reported that the Cyprus Popular Bank suffered a loss of about 2 billion Euro do to the financial crisis in Greece. Sarris is hopeful and remains positive that Greece will be able to find a way out of this crisis without having to leave the Euro.

Paul Krugman is winner of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences (informally the Nobel Prize in Economics), Princeton professor, and a columnist/blogger for the New York Times. His books include End This Depression Now! and The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008.

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Greece heads to the election polls on June 17 and in the midst of deep financial chaos within the Euro zone, anyone with a stake in the future economic health of Europe will be holding their breath.

The reason? Should a newly elected Greek government choose not to abide by the fiscal demands of the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), it means removing Greece from the monetary union. By refusing the rescue package, Greece will thus be unable to pay its debts, and a debt of 300 billion Euros, according to the Japanese conglomerate Nomura, is bound to cause serious ripples in the water.

Yes, some would say the future of Europe could rest on the outcome of the Greek ballots. And it is not just about financial stability and growth; the whole reason why the bailout is being questioned is the social unrest that follows when a national economy fails, something which the streets of Athens have had plenty of face time with.

The Greeks are angry and with good reason — their economy has been destroyed by a financial policy which was bold and irresponsible in an extremely volatile global financial situation. And the cure was increasingly harsh austerity measures which the everyman had to submit to, deservingly or not.

One woman told RT: “The thing with the situation right now in Greece is that we don’t feel very secure about anything — about our jobs, about our salaries. And at my age thinking about the children I’m going to make, and the decisions I have to do, it’s really sad. Everybody here thinks that things could be better.”

Another man expressed the powerlessness of many Greek people. “If all the Europeans know that all this debt cannot be paid back, why do they lend all this money to us? Don’t they want their money back?” He continues “Greece is a European country and Europe is a Greek word. A Greek word.”

His words resonate with the predicted dramatic situation in the wake of June 17; many believe that the Greek government’s irresponsibility was amplified by greed in the Euro zone and feel the austerity measures required by the bailout are weighing too heavily on their shoulders.

But if Greece opts out of the Euro, it is not just the Euro zone which will suffer. The European Union is tightly knit together by import and export across currencies. This means that if for example Germany, which has 84.5 billion stuck in the ailing Greek economy, is forced to adjust spending, a nation such as Denmark, which has a separate currency, the Crown, will feel the squeeze as Germany is currently its biggest export market.

And it doesn’t stop there. The implosion of the Greek economy is equivalent to 3.2% of the sum of economic activity by all EU countries. If this much owed capital is lost, it won’t just hit within Europe; it will possibly be felt worldwide, spreading with no control or inhibition.

Still, when the Irish property bubble burst, or the Icelandic banking scandal ravaged for that matter, people were also placed in unimaginable financial distress, like what Greece, or Spain, is facing. Ireland is still struggling from the ground swells of the bailout but despite cuts and tax rises, the European Committee has predicted a small growth of 0.5 percentage points this year.

Also, while the people are still struggling to believe things will ever improve, you do not see the Irish rallying the streets or lighting themselves on fire to prove a point. Recent Eurobarometers even indicate and the Irish show continuous, above-average support for the monetary union – despite everything.

Academics have pondered this striking difference and some of the evidence points to traditional social and political ties as well as historical endurance. Professor David Farrell of University College Dublin told the Danish newspaper Jyllands-posten that one of his rationalizations pointed to the Irish labour unions having stronger traditions for collaboration with the government, in contrast to their Greek counterparts.

Dr. Mary Murphy of the University of Maynooth added in the same coverage that Ireland also lacks an ideologically strong left wing such as is present in both Spain and Greece. Finally, it has also been argued that the Irish are pragmatic after centuries under the boot of the English, and then the Catholic church, typically refraining from challenging higher powers.

A final reasoning? While the Irish have endured and prevailed so far, Greece has managed to live up to the premises of a ‘Greek Tragedy’, consumed by their misery, their struggle and desire for change, but unlike a play, not for the viewing pleasure of an audience.

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This year the world witnessed repercussions of the most disastrous and indecisive fiscal management in the Euro Zone that shattered one’s sense of security and disturbed the lives of millions of people.

The debt crisis of a hand-full of members of the Euro Zone has potentially inflicted a wound, that has possibly introduced a series of deathly rating downgrades across the region and exposed a lot of risky behavior, especially in the banking industry, credit markets and dithered global economic recovery.

The Contagion

According to the Oxford Dictionary, the word contagion refers to a communication of disease from one person to another. In the world of finance and economics, it refers to the spread of economic crisis in one county’s bond or equity market to another.  In this case, there has been the communication or spread of fear, faithlessness, and inefficiency at the political level and, most tragically, the spread of an illogical attitude.

Greece was the first to be exposed to massive levels of debt and because of its inability to service its debt, apparently under a veil of ignorance and falsehood, became doomed and fear of default spread like a raging fire, putting into question the competency of these countries.

Crisis of Consensus

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Central Bank cannot be relied upon to resolve the crisis, since its statutory role is different from the Federal Reserve Bank or the bank of England. She further said that “no single stroke” will work and joint euro bonds are “unthinkable.”

On the other front, the occasion of the failure of the recent German bond issue, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin said that “it’s only got us closer to the end-game, either the break-up of the Euro or Euro bonds.”

The German Government had always been opposed to jointly-issued bonds, because it involves German taxpayers’ money for members of the bloc, it involves partial backing by German Government and, finally, it will contribute to a rise in cost of borrowing for Germany.

The Catastrophic Logic

In his book, “Back From The Brink,” Alistair Darling said he is gravely concerned that the coalition is repeating the mistakes made during the Great Depression in 1930’s in the United States.

The United States went into double-dip recession in 1937 because its government followed stiff fiscal tightening policies, andUK and debt-laden countries in the Euro-Zone today are following suit.

According to Keynesian school of thought, when effective demand is weak, expansionary fiscal policy should be followed, but under these circumstances, widening of authority of the ECB to finance state expenditure is quite undeniable rather than taking the hand away.

Greece has almost frozen its spending along with Italy to some extent, and it has strengthened the belief that the efforts should be in the reverse order to invite stability across the countries. Hopefully, the new proposal by Merkal to bring in radical changes in treaties will resurrect the rubble.

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