Dmitro Dzhangirov, a Russia and East Europe expert, in a recent article has stated that further bilateral relations between Russia and the Ukraine will benefit from Vladimir Putin’s 12 years of experience. Mr Putin is expected to return to the Presidency later this week following the election on March 4.

Dzhangirov said: “From point of view of the Ukrainian elite Vladimir Putin is a difficult and hard person and thus an unpleasant negotiator. What is considered to be “pragmatism” in Moscow is often perceived as “dictatorship” in Kiev. Strictly speaking, the style of Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian policy can be described as “pragmatism of the strong towards the weak”, but that’s no help for the Ukrainian leadership.

“However, if you remember the last years of Leonid Kuchma’s presidency, within the “multi-vector” framework he was able to have a dialogue with his Russian counterpart on almost equal terms. And the current problems are consequences of mistakes and miscalculations in 2005-2009. Today Vladimir Putin meets on the Bankova Street a person who does not allow Kiev fix easily mistakes and miscalculations of the previous and disloyal to the Kremlin power.

“On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin’s return is expected with fear, the hypothetical variant of the revolutionary “Arabic-like” chaos causes well-founded fear. For the West such fear is caused, first of all, by the presence of second nuclear power in Russia. For Ukraine interruptions in delivery of energy sources and a sharp decline of exports in the east direction may become a real disaster.

“However, the apocalyptic scenario of the immediate future is rather a warning to most fervent “democrats” than a real prediction. But apart from the “stability or chaos” alternative given by the vote on March 4, the question “What is the real alternative to Vladimir Putin in Russia’s Ukrainian policy?” seems quite correct.

“Let’s start with the fact that only “parties of power” tried to build inter-party contacts with colleagues, except for the Ukrainian and the Russian communists, at the moment they are Party of Regions and United Russia. The Ukrainian National-Democratic parties, traditionally citing Lenin’s phrase that “the Russian democracy ends when it comes to the Ukrainian question”, did not even try to find partners in Russia.

The exception was Reforms and Order Party that had more or less regular contacts and even documents signed with the Russian party Union of Right Forces.

“After the “Orange Revolution” the URF party leader Boris Nemtsov was a temporary advisor to the Ukrainian President, but his active participation in the confrontation Viktor Yushchenko – Yulia Tymoshenko had nothing to do with strengthening Russian-Ukrainian inter-party relations.

One can also remember a very short “flirt” between the block of Ukrainian socialists and Motherland block in 2005, which also didn’t get further development. ”In this connection a reasonable question appears. What kind of relationship are the relative “Ukrainian democrats” looking for with hypothetical “non-Putin Russia”?

“The relationship can’t be built from scratch – the Russians have the January 2009 “gas contract” and the April 2010 “Kharkov agreements”. There is also Gazprom’s system of treaties and agreements with European partners both on the gas supply and the construction of gas pipelines.

“And all these are trumps in the hands of the President of Russia, regardless of his name and political views. Could another president of the Russian Federation take a softer position towards Kiev? Yes, he can but only after he at full scale performs all techniques of hard negotiating, starting with the simplest formula of international relations: “Pacta sunt servanda” (“agreements must be kept”).

“The fact is that for any “non Putin” the mentioned documents are a starting point for a dialogue, while for Vladimir Putin they are an intermediate result of a long 12-year negotiating process with all its uneasy and obscure moments and nuances.

“As for the potential of Ukrainian-Russian relations, it is best characterized by the following public inquiry. 64% of Russians have a “very good” and “mostly good” attitude towards Ukraine (Levada Center, the end of January 2012), and this factor should be taken into account by any Russian president.”

Dmitro Dzhangirov is a journalist and Russia – East Europe expert

Source: Russia Insights www.russia-insights.com

Image Courtesy of   Mark III Photonics / Shutterstock.com

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Former Ukraine Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko could be pardoned under a new Criminal Procedure Code now being introduced as part of the country’s pro-European Union reform agenda.

Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych said that if her sentence remains in force after the code becomes law, he will consider any pardon request from her because he wants the “right solution” according to “European standards.”

Tymoshenko was last year jailed for seven years for exceeding her authority as Prime Minister in concluding a 2009 gas contract with Russia. That deal has since resulted in he                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    r country paying significantly higher prices for Russian gas than its neighbours.

The Yanukovych government maintains that it has always kept its distance from the court proceedings against Tymoshenko. The President says as things now stand, he cannot legally grant her a pardon. Only the completion of court procedures and the introduction of new laws will give him the latitude to free Tymoshenko once her appeal has been heard.

“Once we get a solution of the Court of Appeal…if we adopt the Criminal Procedure Code, I think we will have such a possibility,” he said on Ukrainian TV.

“I am for this matter to be considered under the new Criminal Procedure Code.”

The Code is now working its way through the Verkhovna Rada (Parliament) and is one of a number of reforms the Yanukovych has championed to bring his nation in line with EU countries and to express Ukraine’s “European identity.”

Ukraine has also initiated wide-ranging economic reforms and the President last week honoured his pledge to revitalise his cabinet by bringing in three new ministers, including an opposition-linked businessman Petro Poroshenko, as minister for economic development and trade.

Yanukovych said that later this year the EU and other nations will be able to witness fair, free and transparent elections in Ukraine.

“I stand for a fair fight by the rules. There is the law. I am for implementation of this law and fight by the rules according to it,” he said.

“I always stress that this is the first big election to be held by the current power, and of course we must show that we are a civilized country (and) a European country.”

Yanukovych has long maintained Ukraine’s future lies in the European Union and getting a signed Association Agreement with Brussels is the next important step on the long road to EU membership.

Yanukovych has also had to cope with pressure from Russia, which is asking its neighbours to sign a Customs Agreement that would create a Russia-centric free trade alternative to the European Union. Ukraine also recently suffered, along with the EU, unilateral cuts of gas supplies by Gazprom during the cold spell.

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As Russia’s Gazprom admitted that it had cut gas supplies to Europe at the height of the current cold spell, Ukraine said it is ready to help Russia deliver the necessary volumes of gas to Europe and called for greater European cooperation to modernise its gas transport infrastructure and improve energy security for the EU.

Italy, Austria and France were reporting cuts of as much as 30 percent of Russian gas over the weekend. Analysts have said that Ukraine, which as a transit country accounts for more than 70 percent of Russian gas shipments to the EU, is as much a victim of Moscow as the rest of Europe.

Gazprom Deputy Chief Andrey Kruglov was reported to be conferring with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has in the past both threatened and implemented cuts to Ukraine and the EU.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Yuri Boiko was quoted by news agencies saying that shipments to Ukraine had fallen in recent days. Gazprom admitted this but claimed the reason was Russia’s enhanced need because of the cold. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych meanwhile called on energy market participants to seek joint solutions for the future.

“We rely on our European partners, international financial institutions to implement the agreements on their participation in upgrading Ukraine’s gas transportation system,” the Ukrainian president said at the 48th Munich Security Conference on Friday.

He stressed that the situation showed the need for cooperation among all parties and respect for clear, transparent and fair rules of the game in the energy sector. There was a need to balance the interests of Ukraine as the main transit country, Russia as the main supplier, and the European Union as a consumer, President Yanukovych said.

In his speech at the Munich conference, the Ukrainian president also spoke of what he termed the one-sided conditions of the 2009 gas contract with Russia. In 2009, then Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, signed a multi-billion and multi-year dollar gas deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia that is currently forcing Ukraine to pay more than $500 a cubic meter for Gazprom’s supply of gas, even though world market prices are around $400 per cubic meter.

Analysts in Washington are concerned that Russia may be using its Gazprom supplies to pressure Ukraine to submit to closer Soviet-style ties. They fear that Moscow may try and use its energy supplies and pricing to stop President Yanukovych from his announced aim of signing an Association Agreement with the EU and developing closer ties with Europe.

The recent trial and conviction of Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, who was herself a one-time business partner of Russia in the natural gas sector, focussed on her signing of the high-priced 2009 deal with Gazprom without any Cabinet consultation when she was Prime Minister. It was that same deal which is now causing Ukraine to find itself in financial difficulty and a potential hostage of Moscow’s leverage.

 
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