Venezuela is facing presidential elections on October. The race between Hugo Chavez and Henrique Capriles is close in the polls; who will win is still uncertain. These days, the biggest concern for the people of Venezuela is that if Capriles wins, will the losing current president Chavez step down peacefully from a position he has enjoyed for more than a decade, or will he resist and unleash a civil war?

President Chavez has accused Capriles of trying to provoke violence by campaigning in places where he knows Chavez has a lot of support. The accusations came after a march which Henrique Capriles did in La Vega, a poor district of Caracas, in which Capriles sympathizers got into a fight with Chavez supporters. The police intervened and Capriles was not allowed to finish the march.

In a military ceremony, President Chavez referred to Capriles recent actions and told the soldiers: “They are going to try to destabilize the country. I’ve been saying it and everybody should be alert.” Declarations like this are creating a very hostile environment while the country is just a few months away from the elections. Chavez insists that the incident which occurred in La Vega is evidence of Capriles destabilization plans, and the president added that Capriles plans should be neutralized.

Henrique Capriles has denied the accusations and stated: “I’m not walking Venezuela’s streets to fight with anybody.” So far the campaign has been peaceful, but there is a risk that it could turn violent in the final rounds. The opposition candidate knows that in order to win, he would need the support of the poor and the working-class so places such as La Vega are necessary campaign grounds for him.

Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington, expressed his fear that most of the country is exposed to, as he stated: “a risk that minor clashes between supporters of both camps could escalate and threaten social peace. The distrust is profound, and arms are plentiful.”

The elections are schedules for October 7 and Capriles campaign has been very intense. He has visited most of the country in his attempt to win over the population and Chavez out of the presidency, a position he has held since 1999. On the other hand because of his cancer treatment recovery, president Chavez  has barely begun campaigning, but still, he has stated that he is sure he will defeat Capriles. He recently made a political rally in the Venezuelan state of Zulia where he claims he congregated hundreds of thousands of people, and said that Capriles efforts would be in vain.

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The Venezuelan electoral campaign for the October 7 elections have just begun. This will be one of the most watched elections since Hugo Chavez came to power 12 years ago. After this long term mandate, President Chavez will again be the United Socialist Party of Venezuela party candidate.

Chavez, who has been in power during two consecutive legislatures, will have the chance to become President for the third time in a row, something that was not possible before 2009 when the amendment that precluded mandates longer than two legislatures was erased.

The other main option for Venezuelans is the one led by the Democratic Unity Roundtable, a political party coalition that was formed in January 2008, to unify the opposition to President Chavez in the Venezuelan parliamentary elections.

The DUR head is Henrique Capriles, but there are other strong figures within the party, such as the independent deputy Maria Corina Machado.

Chavez, age 57, who is still recovering from his cancer, made an speech in the Maracay city to his voters. “In the next 100 days, the next 100 years in Venezuela are going to be decided” said Chavez, who is already campaigning.

Chavez speech was loyal to his style. He made a call against bourgeoisie, and his anti-Americanism feeling came once more to appearance: “We just need ten million votes to hit on the bourgeoisie and give them their final knockout. A knockout that will also hit to the North American Empire.” He also appealed to their voters to spread Chaves’ words in order to get more votes.

According the Consulters 21, Vice President, Saul Cabrera, surveys say that President Chavez counts with the 45,9% vote intention. In the other side, surveys says that 45,8% of voters will go for Henrique Capriles, who is having a better reputation as days passes by.

But the DUR opposition party does not give up, despite what surveys says. In fact, they do not pay too much attention to them, and say that these surveys are made to discourage and demobilize the opposition.

DUR also blames Chavez for having a totally dominated society, an slavery country. “But this country has opened their eyes,” said Maria Corina Machado to Spanish ABC. “Venezuela needs investors and trust, and that is what Capriles represents,” said Corina Machado, who also remembered that Chavez can not rule a country due to his health state.

Candidate Capriles wrote a column for a Venezuelan newspaper that blamed Chavez for “keep on talking about the same as 12 years and blaming others instead of looking at himself.”

The five states that have more voters according to the final Electoral Register, are Zulia, Miranda, Capital District, Carabobo and Lara, from which four of them are run by governors of the opposition.

Zulia (2,334,529 voters), Miranda (1,950,657), Carabobo (1,516,240) and Lara (1,197,690), which represents 37% of voters nationwide, are the states where opposition governs. Capital District ranks third, with 1,608,976 voters.

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“If I’m fortunate enough to become the next president, it is my expectation that Fidel Castro will finally be taken off this planet,” Mitt Romney told to a group of Cuban exiled and political leaders in Miami on January. With this short sentence he showed the world that he is not willing to conceive of Cuba as a friend, as long as Raul and Fidel Castro are still alive.

It seems that Mitt Romney dreams of a free Cuba and is willing to make his dream come true. He also wants to be everything Obama isn’t, so in the Cuba issue he would follow the same plan. If Obama, at the beginning of his presidency, adopted an appeasement strategy, Romney in his campaign assured he would harden the sanctions against Cuba if he is elected president. His plans are clear: the embargo would come to an end when Cuba is free, and free means with the Castro’s out of sight. It is clear that he wants the Cuban community’s support for presidential election.

But in these hard economic times, this strategy may not attract as many Cuban voters as he expects. Cubans are decisive in a crucial state like Florida. Most politicians try to gain their support by criticizing Castro, because most of their ancestors escaped the island when the Castro regime started in 1959. But in this period of crisis, most Cuban voters just think about the economy as their priority. Maybe in a time of prosperity, the priority of the Cuban voters will be the position of the presidential candidate over their country, but not in these hard times.

But Mitt Romney has bigger plans than the Cuban community support. He wants the entire Latin community support; he reassured citizens that he is interested in Latin American issues and clearly expressed the route that he will follow, referring to the relations with the different Latin American governments, if he is elected president. Romney believes that Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela and declared enemy of the United States,  and Fidel  Castro are serious threats for the United States.

That leaves the country members of ALBA (The Bolivian Alliance for the People of Our America), an alliance proposed by Chavez as an alternative to the FTA (Free Trade Area of the Americas, proposed by the United States) without hope of having good relations with the United States in the nearby future.

But Romney may not be the biggest threat toward Chavez. His real enemy is his sickness.Although president Chavez real health condition is a mystery; the fact is, he hasn’t been present in Venezuela during the last months, and it is very difficult to run a country and win an election just by Twitter. Chavez’s health will be a crucial issue during the next months because it will condition the relationship between the United States and Latin America. Also, if Venezuela falls, it is almost certain that Cuba would fall, because Venezuela is the country’s stronger economic supporter.

The future of the United States and Latin America is a mystery. We still have many questions without an answer, like if Romney would be elected president or if Chavez’ health would make him able to compete in the October elections against Henrique Capriles. All these answers are crucial and would determine the future of the continent.

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