Washington, U.S.A. — A new study from the Center for Immigration Studies projects the share of Hispanic voters nationally and in battleground states for the upcoming 2012 election. Using Census Bureau data from prior election years and data collected this year we project that Hispanics will be 8.9 percent of the electorate in 2012 — a 1.5 percentage point increase from 7.4 percent in 2008. The report also finds that Hispanics will comprise a somewhat smaller share of voters in battleground states than they do nationally. However, there is significant variation in Hispanic shares across battleground states.

The study can be found online.

Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research, notes, “While Hispanic voters are a small share of the electorate, in a close election they could decide the outcome. Of course, the same is true of many other voting blocs, such as veterans or senior citizens. It would a mistake to overemphasize race to the exclusion of other factors.”

National share of the vote:

• We project that in November 2012 Hispanics will comprise 17.2 percent of the total U.S. population, 15 percent of adults, 11.2 percent of adult citizens, and 8.9 percent of actual voters.
• In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4 percent of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2 percent.
• To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote.
• The 8.9 percent Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12 percent), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18 percent), seniors 65 and older (19 percent), married persons (60 percent), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80 percent).
• In terms of voter turnout, we project that 52.7 percent (+/- 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9 percent in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade’s long upward trend.
• The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7 percent compares to 66.1 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.

Share in Battleground States:

• In the seven states listed by The Cook Political Report in July as “toss-ups”, we project that Hispanics will average 8.0 percent of voters in 2012, compared to 8.9 percent nationally. The seven toss-up states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, andVirginia.
• In the four states listed by Cook as “leaning” toward one party or the other, the Hispanic vote will average 2.8 percent of the electorate in November. The four leaning states are Michigan,Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
• In the seven states Cook identifies as “likely” for one party or the other, Hispanics will average 9.8 percent of the vote. Excluding New Mexico, they will average 4.4 percent of voters in the remaining six “likely” states. The likely states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Maine,Minnesota, and New Mexico.
• Taken together Hispanics will average 7.6 percent of the electorate across the “toss-up”, “leaning”, and “likely” states. If we combine the populations of these states and calculate the Hispanic share of the electorate, Hispanics are projected to be 6.6 percent of the vote.
• The Hispanic share of voters varies significantly in the 18 battleground states. In 12 of the 18 states, Hispanics are projected to be less than 4 percent of the electorate (Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota,Missouri, and Maine). But in four of the states (New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona), Hispanics will be more than 16 percent of the vote.
• Non-Hispanic whites are projected to be slightly overrepresented (79.4 percent) in battleground states relative to their share of the national electorate. Like Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks (9.4 percent) tend to be slightly underrepresented in battleground states.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit, research organization. Since its founding in 1985, the Center has pursued a single mission – providing immigration policymakers, the academic community, news media, and concerned citizens with reliable information about the social, economic, environmental, security, and fiscal consequences of legal and illegal immigration into the United States.

Image Courtesy of  PBS News Hour

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Washington, U.S.A. — The United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (USHCC) has announced a new initiative to track and analyze Spanish-language political ad spending in 10 top target states leading up to the November elections.

Using comprehensive data on local television advertising from Kantar Media’s CMAG, the Speak Our Language project will both showcase the campaigns with a strong level of commitment to Spanish-language media and highlight those who ignore this critical demographic with their paid advertising.

“This election, Latino voters have the power to exert more influence, decide more races, and cast more votes than ever before, and there’s no doubt that political candidates and committees are fighting to capture that vote,” said Javier Palomarez, President and CEO of the USHCC. ”But historically, political candidates and the various organizations that support them have largely ignored the media platforms Hispanic voters consume most: Spanish-language TV, radio, print and online outlets. The USHCC will be working to hold 2012 campaigns accountable for their commitment to the country’s Hispanic communities.”

CMAG’s research shows that overall, in 2008, an average of just 4.03 percent of all political TV ad spending across 28 top markets went to Spanish-language stations. In 2010, just 3.9 percent went to Spanish-language stations.

At the same time, the percentage of the electorate that is Hispanic continues to grow. In 2008, 40 percent of all new voters were Hispanic. In 2012, the number of registered Hispanic voters is expected to exceed 14 million.

“In almost every one of the 28 markets we examined over the last three elections, the share of political TV ad spending dedicated to Spanish-language stations was significantly lower than the share the stations received of the general market,” said Ken Goldstein, President of Kantar Media’s CMAG.   ”For example, in 2010 in Miami, Spanish language stations garnered 31 percent of all non-political television advertising, but only 12 percent of the political advertising and in Denver, Spanish language stations attracted 14 percent of all non-political advertising, but just a little more than one percent of political ad spending.”

One of the most important ways campaigns connect with voters is through television advertising. No matter how one feels about political ads, the fact is that in America today ads are the primary vehicle through which candidates from the presidential level down to the local level communicate their message and seek the support of voters.

“Political candidates and committees know that they need Latino voters in order to win, but they have to back up their words with real action and direct communication in order to mobilize the key Hispanic communities and garner those votes,” said Palomarez.

Key facts about Hispanic Voters

• 50.5 million: Number of Latinos in the United States (out of 308.7 million people)
• 16: Percentage of the total U.S. population in 2010 that was Latino.
• 29: Projected percentage of the U.S. population that will be Latino in 2050.
• 43: Percent increase since the 2000 census of the Latino population in the United States, according to the 2010 census.
• 14 million: Projected number of registered Hispanic voters in 2012.
• 21: Percentage of the population of swing-state Florida is Hispanic.
• 17: Percentage of potential voters in swing-state Colorado that is Hispanic.

Full Study available at www.USHCC.com

Image Courtesy  of  USDAgov

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New Mexico Governor, Susana Martinez, who is the first female Hispanic governor in the U.S. and the first female governor of New Mexico, is among the chosen speakers at this year’s Republican National Convention.

Three women are among the first seven announced speakers that include Condoleezza Rice, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, John McCain, Rick Scott, Mike Huckabee and John Kasich. These three women are expected to boost Rooney’s profile for the female vote. Polls have shown that President Obama is currently ahead of Romney when it comes to appealing to the American woman.

Both Martinez and Nikki Haley, who is Indian-American, are expected to help Romney with minorities, who now majorly support Barack Obama.

Something that may surprise many is that none of Romney’s top considerations for the vice-president post–Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio or Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey–are among the seven headline speakers. This will keep his vice-president nomination a mystery, at least until the eve of the 2012 Republican National Convention.

The Republicans have only announced the speakers mentioned so far. They are holding back with the rest, including the keynote speaker — an honor that could catapult a rising member of the party to national prominence.

Susana Martinez could help Romney with the Hispanic segments of women and according to Fox, “she can also address voters who feel securing the nation’s Southern border is a top concern.” New Mexico was won by Obama in the 2008 election with 56.7% of the votes, but Martinez’ popularity in the state might give Romney a slight advantage in this year’s race.

The Democrats also know the importance of the Hispanic vote in this election, so they have chosen Julian Castro, the mayor of San Antonio, for their keynote speaker at the Democrat National Convention in Charlotte on September 4. Both Martinez and Castro will try to help their respective parties gain the support of Hispanic voters.

Susana Martinez’ background is very humble; she comes from a middle class working family, and her parents started a security business with almost no money in their pockets. Susana herself worked as a security guard while attending college. Governor Martinez obtained a bachelor’s degree from the University of Texas and a law degree from the University of Oklahoma.

Martinez’s official website explains that “she was elected on November 2, 2010, pledging to cut wasteful spending, lower taxes to create more jobs, end ‘pay-to-play’ practices and other corruption in government and fight to reform education.”

Susana Martinez has expressed the importance of the Republican National Convention for achieving victory in the November elections: “The Republican National Convention will give Mitt Romney momentum for securing a critical victory for our country this fall. Americans want to work. They want to build their businesses, compete and succeed in order to create more jobs and a secure future for their families.

Mitt Romney knows that is the formula for our economic growth – not more government roadblocks. We will share this message in Tampa in a few weeks, and the American voters will make their voices heard on this at the polls in November.”

Image Courtesy of  Albuquerque Public Schools

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