Washington, U.S.A. — A new study from the Center for Immigration Studies projects the share of Hispanic voters nationally and in battleground states for the upcoming 2012 election. Using Census Bureau data from prior election years and data collected this year we project that Hispanics will be 8.9 percent of the electorate in 2012 — a 1.5 percentage point increase from 7.4 percent in 2008. The report also finds that Hispanics will comprise a somewhat smaller share of voters in battleground states than they do nationally. However, there is significant variation in Hispanic shares across battleground states.

The study can be found online.

Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research, notes, “While Hispanic voters are a small share of the electorate, in a close election they could decide the outcome. Of course, the same is true of many other voting blocs, such as veterans or senior citizens. It would a mistake to overemphasize race to the exclusion of other factors.”

National share of the vote:

• We project that in November 2012 Hispanics will comprise 17.2 percent of the total U.S. population, 15 percent of adults, 11.2 percent of adult citizens, and 8.9 percent of actual voters.
• In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4 percent of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2 percent.
• To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote.
• The 8.9 percent Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12 percent), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18 percent), seniors 65 and older (19 percent), married persons (60 percent), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80 percent).
• In terms of voter turnout, we project that 52.7 percent (+/- 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9 percent in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade’s long upward trend.
• The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7 percent compares to 66.1 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.

Share in Battleground States:

• In the seven states listed by The Cook Political Report in July as “toss-ups”, we project that Hispanics will average 8.0 percent of voters in 2012, compared to 8.9 percent nationally. The seven toss-up states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, andVirginia.
• In the four states listed by Cook as “leaning” toward one party or the other, the Hispanic vote will average 2.8 percent of the electorate in November. The four leaning states are Michigan,Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
• In the seven states Cook identifies as “likely” for one party or the other, Hispanics will average 9.8 percent of the vote. Excluding New Mexico, they will average 4.4 percent of voters in the remaining six “likely” states. The likely states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Maine,Minnesota, and New Mexico.
• Taken together Hispanics will average 7.6 percent of the electorate across the “toss-up”, “leaning”, and “likely” states. If we combine the populations of these states and calculate the Hispanic share of the electorate, Hispanics are projected to be 6.6 percent of the vote.
• The Hispanic share of voters varies significantly in the 18 battleground states. In 12 of the 18 states, Hispanics are projected to be less than 4 percent of the electorate (Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota,Missouri, and Maine). But in four of the states (New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona), Hispanics will be more than 16 percent of the vote.
• Non-Hispanic whites are projected to be slightly overrepresented (79.4 percent) in battleground states relative to their share of the national electorate. Like Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks (9.4 percent) tend to be slightly underrepresented in battleground states.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit, research organization. Since its founding in 1985, the Center has pursued a single mission – providing immigration policymakers, the academic community, news media, and concerned citizens with reliable information about the social, economic, environmental, security, and fiscal consequences of legal and illegal immigration into the United States.

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Miami, U.S.A. — By rethinking the conventional wisdom about core voting issues, Hispanic Catholics can transform American politics.

That is the message that Supreme Knight Carl Anderson of the Knights of Columbus will deliver to more than 100 Hispanic business and civic leaders meeting in Miami for the annual conference of the Catholic Association of Latino Leaders (CALL).

The speech is scheduled Friday, August 24, at 7:00 PM at the Family Center of St. Thomas the Apostle Catholic Church 7377 SW 64th Street, Miami.

Anderson will make the case that voters must consider a candidates position on issues that affect core values if we want to build a country where the Catholic values of Hispanic immigrants are respected. Anderson will note that voting for those who say they support immigration reform is not enough, if those same politicians also advocate policies at odds with the core Catholic beliefs shared by the vast majority of Hispanic immigrants.

His speech notes that “we should work to ensure that future generations of immigrants find a country that supports their values and not one that asks them to surrender their religious values at the border as the price of their admission.”

It adds that “being forced to surrender values at the border is not multiculturalism, it is the opposite of multiculturalism.”

Anderson will also point out that “we all want and deserve a real solution” on immigration. However, despite many promises from individuals on both sides of the political aisle, no comprehensive immigration solution has been forthcoming and conditions in the United States are now such that as many or more Mexican immigrants are returning to Mexico as are coming in the United States according to the Pew Foundation.

The speech comes on the heels of the enormous Guadalupe Celebration in Los Angeles earlier this month sponsored by the Knights of Columbus and the Archdiocese of Los Angeles – the largest Catholic event in that city since the visit of Pope John Paul II in 1987.

A strong advocate for Catholics voting in a way consistent with their conscience, Anderson will tell the assembled Latino Leaders that Hispanic voters should consider many issues in voting, and ought to draw a line they will not cross in voting if a politician supports policies at odds with core Catholic beliefs.

Such policies include support for abortion or the limitation of First Amendment freedom of religion – which have come under increasing assault from federal policies including the unpopular HHS Mandate that forces religious employers to pay for abortion inducing drugs, sterilization and contraception. The mandate and other federal actions have also sought to redefine the very nature of religion, something that has drawn condemnation from many religious leaders of many faiths.

Earlier this month, Pope Benedict XVI conveyed his support for the Knights of Columbus work in support of religious liberty. The letter addressed to Carl Anderson from the Vatican Secretary of State Tarcisio Bertone, stated “His Holiness is confident that the (Knights of Columbus) Supreme Convention will carry on this distinguished legacy by providing sound inspiration, guidance and direction to a new generation of faithful and dedicated Catholic laymen.As he stated to the Bishops of the United States earlier this year, the demands of the new evangelization and the defense of the Church’s freedom in our day call for ‘an engaged, articulate and well-formed Catholic laity endowed with a strong critical sense vis-à-vis the dominant culture and with the courage to counter a reductive secularism which would delegitimize the Church’s participation in public debate about issues which are determining the future of American society’ (Ad LiminaAddress, 19 January 2012).”

Anderson leads an organization of 1.8 million members founded by immigrants and the sons of immigrants in 1882 and dedicated to the principles of charity, unity, fraternity and patriotism. The Knights of Columbus has long been a “pan-American” organization, having established councils in Mexico in 1905 and in Cuba in 1909 and in Canada in 1897.

Anderson is coauthor of the New York Times bestselling book Our Lady of Guadalupe: Mother of the Civilization of Love, and serves as CEO of the Knights of Columbus.

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Perhaps the largest minority voting bloc with the biggest impact are Hispanics. Hispanics have quickly become one of the largest demographics in the United States and in recent years have grown significantly in size. In North Carolina alone from 2000 to 2010 the Hispanic population grew 111%. Battleground states that will be determined by only a few hundred votes will make the Democrats and Republicans rely heavily on minority groups such as Hispanics.

However, 58% of Hispanics are unable to vote either because of their citizenship status or their age. Hispanics are also one of the youngest groups in the US with 50,000 Hispanics becoming 18 every month.

Hispanics tend to be liberal leaning but they are not a cohesive voting bloc like other minority groups, and are more likely to vote for a candidate they like than a party. Although all of them may be Hispanic that is where many of the similarities end since many will have different political views based on native country, age, or residence in the US according to The National Journal.

Currently Hispanics support Obama (66%) far more than they support Romney (25%), although 9% are undecided. Hispanics also supported Obama in 2008 at about the same rate as they seem to be for this election. However, Obama’s white voter base has shrunk slightly by 5%.

According to a recent Gallup Poll Immigration, Healthcare, and Unemployment are equally important to the Hispanic voter. In comparison, other registered voter groups have immigration coming in last of issues they deem important. According to Latino Decision immigration is ranked as a higher issue of concern among Latinos from border states like New Mexico.

There are at least twelve of fifteen swing states in which the Hispanic vote will be highly significant. Last presidential election, some of these swing states went to Obama because of the Hispanic vote including Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, Indiana, and Florida.

And the Hispanic influence will only grow in politics. Robert Suro, Professor of Journalism and Public Policy at the University of Southern California stated, “the discussion of the Latino voter is the discussion of the future of politics, not about this cycle. Where this cycle can have a big difference [is how it] casts trajectories into the future.”

This projection still has not prevented Obama and Romney from catering to the Hispanic vote this year. Hispanic voters are fairly active with 87% of responders in a Latino Decision survey in Florida saying they will definitely be voting in the next election. However, registered Florida Hispanics have declined by ten percent since 2008.

Hispanics face their difficulties in getting to the voting booths this year as well. In Florida Governor Rick Scott is working to purge Florida voter rolls of all who are suspected of being non-citizens by comparing the voter registration rolls to the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles’ records. So far at least 180,000 have been flagged as possible non-citizens, 58% of whom are Hispanics and 79% who are registered as Democrats or ‘no-affiliation.’

The Miami Herald reported that in Miami Dade county thirteen registered voters were not citizens and only two had voted in previous elections.

The United States Department of Justice has ordered Rick Scott to stop the voter purges. Although the purges will have a marginal effect on the number of voters it is still expected to affect the mentality of voters and their turnout according to Latino Decision.

Obama leads Romney in the polls, but there are several aspects of his record during his time as president that could hurt his chances. Obama promised to introduce an immigration reform bill in his first year but he still has not. Obama has also been the most aggressive president in regards to deportations since the 1950s. Obama has deported 1.2 million Latinos, 46,000 of whom are parents of American citizens. Since April 2009 until now Obama’s approval rating has dropped 36 points among Latinos.

Mitt Romney, on the other hand, seems even worse for Hispanic voters. He has stated that he wants life in the US to be so difficult for illegal immigrants they will self-deport. However, taking Marco Rubio, a Hispanic Senator from Florida, as his Vice President would significantly aid Romney in his campaign, bringing over more of the Hispanic vote.

Obama has won over several Hispanic voters with his executive order that put parts of the Dream Act into effect – a move that 91% of young Hispanics supported. In the process Obama prevented the deportation of nearly a million people brought here as children. Obama stated that these individuals are Americans “in every single way but one: on paper.”

“This is not amnesty. This is not immunity. This is not a path to citizenship. It’s not a permanent fix. This is a temporary, stopgap measure that lets us focus our resources wisely while giving a degree of relief and hope to … patriotic young people. It’s the right thing to do.”

This order is not the DREAM Act exactly because only Congress can pass that but it does allow young Hispanics brought here illegally to have a better chance at getting a job and going to college because they can now get work and study visas. Before this executive order these individuals could not get financial aid for college or be legally employed in the United States. Representative Steve King, a Republican from Iowa, has said that he would challenge the law in court.

The New York Times called the DREAM Act executive order a ‘play’ for more votes from the Hispanic voting bloc. A claim that is not all that far-fetched.

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