Washington, U.S.A. — Housing market confidence among Americans continues to trend in a positive direction despite stalling optimism about the economy and personal finances, according to results from Fannie Mae’s June 2012 National Housing Survey. Results indicate flattening economic trends may be contributing to waning consumer expectations about their personal financial situation. Nevertheless, Americans’ continued positive sentiment about housing appears to remain buoyed by low house prices and interest rates at historically low levels.

“While consumers remain cautious about the general economy, their attitudes toward the housing market continue to improve,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Although this positive trend may be short-lived if the general economy falters, one might ask whether consumers are increasingly seeing the current environment as a unique opportunity to buy a home while home prices remain depressed, rental costs are increasing, and interest rates are near historic lows.”

Respondents expect home prices to increase 2 percent in the next year, on average, and 35 percent of Americans say that home prices will go up in the next twelve months (also the highest level recorded since the survey began in June 2010). In turn, the share of consumers who say they would buy if they were going to move increased by 6 percentage points this month (the highest level seen in the survey’s two-year history).

At the same time, 36 percent of Americans think the economy is on the right track (down 2 percentage points since May) and 57 percent think the economy is on the wrong track (up 1 percentage point). The percentage of respondents who expect their financial situation to remain the same over the next year dropped by 4 percentage points from last month to 42 percent, while only 18 percent say their household income has improved (also down 4 percentage points).

Survey highlights

Homeownership and Renting:

• Average home price expectation hit 2.0 percent this month, a 0.6 percent increase from May and the highest value recorded since the survey began in June 2010.
• Thirty-five percent of respondents say that home prices will go up in the next 12 months, the highest level recorded since the survey’s inception.
• Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed think mortgage rates will go up in the next 12 months, a 4 percentage point decrease from last month.
• The percentage who say it is a good time to buy increased slightly to 73 percent, matching the highest level recorded since the survey began two years ago, while the percentage who think it is a good time to sell remained at 15 percent.
• On average, respondents expect home rental prices to increase by 4.0 percent over the next 12 months, generally steady since May.
• Forty-eight percent of respondents think that home rental prices will go up in the next 12 months, while 5 percent think they will go down.
• Sixty-nine percent of respondents said that they would buy if they were going to move, a 6 percentage point increase from last month and the highest level recorded since the survey’s inception.
• The percentage of respondents who would rent decreased from 32 percent to 27 percent, the lowest number to date.

The Economy and Household Finances:

• The upward trend of confidence that the economy is on the right track stalled this month, leveling at 36 percent.
• The percentage of respondents who expect their personal financial situation to stay the same over the next 12 months decreased by 4 percentage points to 42 percent, while those who expect their situation to get better steadied at 43 percent.
• Eighteen percent of respondents say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago, a 4 percentage point decrease and the lowest value seen since November 2011.
• Household expenses remained stable this month, with 55 percent reporting that their expenses stayed about the same as they were 12 months ago.

The most detailed consumer attitudinal survey of its kind, the Fannie Mae National Housing Survey polled 1,001 Americans via live telephone interview to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, mortgage rates, homeownership distress, the economy, household finances, and overall consumer confidence.

Homeowners and renters are asked more than 100 questions used to track attitudinal shifts (findings are compared to the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to stabilize the housing market in the near-term, and provide support in the future.

The Fannie Mae Monthly National Housing Survey site has detailed findings from the June 2012 survey, as well as a podcast providing an audio synopsis of the survey results and technical notes on survey methodology and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator. Also available on the site are quarterly survey results, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies.

The June 2012 Fannie Mae National Housing Survey was conducted between June 4, 2012 and June 21, 2012. Interviews were conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, in coordination with Fannie Mae.

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Washington, U.S.A. – Despite a downward revision to economic growth in the first quarter, moderate growth is expected to continue for the remainder of 2012, according to Fannie Mae’s (OTC Bulletin Board: FNMA) Economic & Strategic Research Group. However, risks to the economic outlook have tilted to the downside. Factors such as a decelerating trend in hiring, potential contagion in the euro zone from fiscal issues in Greece, and the potential of a massive fiscal drag in the U.S. indicate that the balance between upside and downside risks has diminished.

For all of 2012, growth is projected to come in at 2.2 percent. Consumers remain key to the overall outlook, as attitudes appear to be reaching a plateau after a few months of improvement early in the year. Loss of momentum in labor market conditions, sluggish income growth, and decreasing saving rates suggest that consumers may need to moderate spending unless income picks up.

“For the third year in a row we are experiencing a spring lull in economic activity,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.”Our view is that the underlying resilience of the economy and of consumers in particular that has been demonstrated during the past couple of years will persist. However, the magnitude of the uncertainties surrounding the European debt crisis and our fiscal condition here in the U.S. implies that the risks to the outlook are clearly tilted to the downside.”

The housing market has performed relatively well in the current environment supported by record affordability and very low interest rates, with home sales up 8 percent year over year, but from very depressed levels in numeric terms compared to 2011. In turn, cautious optimism remains in place for continued gradual healing of the housing market, albeit in the face of various headwinds, including weak employment growth, rising student loans, and a continuing stream of foreclosed households.

Main measures of home prices have firmed in recent months, as the share of distressed sales has declined in a strong seasonal period. Despite this recent encouraging trend, the Group continues to expect that home prices on a national basis will show a slight additional decline before bottoming in the beginning of next year.

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