Washington, U.S.A. — A new study from the Center for Immigration Studies projects the share of Hispanic voters nationally and in battleground states for the upcoming 2012 election. Using Census Bureau data from prior election years and data collected this year we project that Hispanics will be 8.9 percent of the electorate in 2012 — a 1.5 percentage point increase from 7.4 percent in 2008. The report also finds that Hispanics will comprise a somewhat smaller share of voters in battleground states than they do nationally. However, there is significant variation in Hispanic shares across battleground states.

The study can be found online.

Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research, notes, “While Hispanic voters are a small share of the electorate, in a close election they could decide the outcome. Of course, the same is true of many other voting blocs, such as veterans or senior citizens. It would a mistake to overemphasize race to the exclusion of other factors.”

National share of the vote:

• We project that in November 2012 Hispanics will comprise 17.2 percent of the total U.S. population, 15 percent of adults, 11.2 percent of adult citizens, and 8.9 percent of actual voters.
• In 2012, non-Hispanic whites are expected to be 73.4 percent of the national vote and non-Hispanic blacks are expected to be 12.2 percent.
• To place the Hispanic share of the electorate into perspective, eight percentage points of the Hispanic vote nationally equals slightly less than one percentage point of the non-Hispanic white vote.
• The 8.9 percent Hispanic share of voters compares to veterans (12 percent), those with family incomes above $100,000 (18 percent), seniors 65 and older (19 percent), married persons (60 percent), and those who live in owner-occupied housing (80 percent).
• In terms of voter turnout, we project that 52.7 percent (+/- 0.6) of eligible Hispanics will vote in the upcoming election, an increase from 49.9 percent in 2008 and a continuation of the past decade’s long upward trend.
• The projected Hispanic voter participation rate of 52.7 percent compares to 66.1 percent for non-Hispanic whites and 65.2 percent for non-Hispanic blacks in 2008.

Share in Battleground States:

• In the seven states listed by The Cook Political Report in July as “toss-ups”, we project that Hispanics will average 8.0 percent of voters in 2012, compared to 8.9 percent nationally. The seven toss-up states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, andVirginia.
• In the four states listed by Cook as “leaning” toward one party or the other, the Hispanic vote will average 2.8 percent of the electorate in November. The four leaning states are Michigan,Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
• In the seven states Cook identifies as “likely” for one party or the other, Hispanics will average 9.8 percent of the vote. Excluding New Mexico, they will average 4.4 percent of voters in the remaining six “likely” states. The likely states are Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Maine,Minnesota, and New Mexico.
• Taken together Hispanics will average 7.6 percent of the electorate across the “toss-up”, “leaning”, and “likely” states. If we combine the populations of these states and calculate the Hispanic share of the electorate, Hispanics are projected to be 6.6 percent of the vote.
• The Hispanic share of voters varies significantly in the 18 battleground states. In 12 of the 18 states, Hispanics are projected to be less than 4 percent of the electorate (Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota,Missouri, and Maine). But in four of the states (New Mexico, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona), Hispanics will be more than 16 percent of the vote.
• Non-Hispanic whites are projected to be slightly overrepresented (79.4 percent) in battleground states relative to their share of the national electorate. Like Hispanics, non-Hispanic blacks (9.4 percent) tend to be slightly underrepresented in battleground states.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent, non-partisan, non-profit, research organization. Since its founding in 1985, the Center has pursued a single mission – providing immigration policymakers, the academic community, news media, and concerned citizens with reliable information about the social, economic, environmental, security, and fiscal consequences of legal and illegal immigration into the United States.

Image Courtesy of  PBS News Hour

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Los Angeles, U.S.A. — nuvoTV will air a groundbreaking town hall-style television special, “We Decide: Latinos and the 2012 Election,” on Sunday, August 19 at 8:00PM (ET/PT), moderated by NBC News’s award-winning journalist Natalie Morales, news anchor of TODAY.

This historic hour-long original program will be the first to explore how this year’s presidential candidates are addressing crucial issues facing America’s Latinos and represents the first of its kind partnership between nuvoTV and NBC News’s Peacock Production.

“We Decide: Latinos and the 2012 Election” delves into the issues that matter most, and nothing is off-limits as the panel of experts and audience participants engage in a passionate discussion on the impact of the Dream Act, immigration reform, the economy, job creation and other vital topics.

“Latinos in America are a crucial component for presidential candidates in this year’s election, and could well be the deciding factor in determining who is our next president,” said Michael Schwimmer, CEO of nuvoTV, “Mainstream media has not adequately addressed the issues facing America’s Latino community in the context of this election. nuvoTV’s town hall will provide a unique venue for Latinos to amplify their voice across the country in English, so that the widest possible audience can appreciate Latinos’ perspectives on the issues.”

“We Decide: Latinos and the 2012 Election” experts represent a diverse panel of political thought-leaders, including:

• Governor Bill Richardson (D), the former two-term Governor of New Mexico, Ambassador to the United Nations and Energy Secretary in the Clinton Administration.
• Congressman Luis Gutierrez (D), now in his tenth term as the U.S. Representative for Illinois’ 4th congressional district, is a tireless champion of the causes of the Latino and immigrant communities across the U.S. He is the first Latino to be elected to Congress from the Midwest.
• Janet Murguia is President and CEO National Council of La Raza, the nation’s largest Latino civil rights and advocacy organization. She has been widely recognized for her work, including honors on numerous lists that include People en Espanol’s “100 Most Influential Hispanics,” Hispanic Business’ “100 Most Influential Hispanics,” Latino Leaders’ “101 Top Leaders of the Hispanic Community” and twice on Washingtonian’s “100 Most Powerful Women in Washington.”
• Jennifer Korn is the Executive Director at the American Action Network in Washington, D.C., a leading conservative advocacy group. She has 16 years experience managing candidate and issue campaigns both in and outside the White House. She has served on three presidential campaigns.
• Paul Rodriguez , a popular comedian for nearly three decades, was voted one of the most influential Hispanics in America and awarded the Ruben Salazar Award by the National Council of La Raza. He is widely recognized as an influential member of the Latino community.
• Thomas A. Saenz , CEO of the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund, the Nation’s leading Latino legal civil rights organization.
• Arturo Vargas is the Executive Director of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO), a national membership organization of Latino policymakers. He also serves as Executive Director of the NALEO Educational Fund, an affiliated national nonprofit organization that promotes the full participation of Latinos in civic life.
• Rudy Fernandez serves on Mitt Romney’s National Hispanic Steering Committee. A seasoned political advisor, Fernandez has held positions in the White House, the U.S. Department of Transportation and the Republican National Committee.

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