Swing states, or those with undefined political preferences, will decide who will be the next president of the United States. In the 2008 election President Obama obtained 365 electoral votes, when only 270 are needed to become president. The result proved his overwhelming success compared to the previous President George W. Bush, who only obtained 286 electoral votes in the 2004 election. But in November, reelection will not be that easy for President Obama because of the swing states.

In the 2008 election, Barack Obama won back crucial states to the Democrats, such as Florida or North Carolina, which had been in Republican control since the 2000 elections. But this could change this year; the Republicans want to regain control of Florida and hosting the Republican Convention there is proof of it. The Democrats want to remain in control of North Carolina, explaining why they organized their convention in Charlotte.

President Obama’s road to reelection will not be an easy one. Although the last two presidents have achieved reelection, the economic crisis has weakened Barack Obama, and that’s why Mitt Romney will have a chance, since he is seen as someone who knows how to handle economic problems. A recent Gallup poll shows that 60% of the people surveyed said Romney would do a good job handling the economy over the next four years; 52% said president Obama would.

The recent Gallup poll showed in which aspects Mitt Romney is stronger, but it also shows his weak points: he doesn’t generate enthusiasm from his voters and he hasn’t been able to establish a strong connection with the people. The results of the poll show it, and Obama is perceived as a much more likeable candidate with an advantage of over 27 points against Romney.

USA Today/Gallup lists twelve states that can determine this election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

One state that is not considered a swing state, but could become one at any moment, is Arizona. In the U.S. electoral history this state has only voted for the Democratic Party once since President Truman, but the number of independent voters has grown in recent years in this state. This scenario makes Mitt Romney’s victory uncertain because there are a large number of undecided voters waiting to hear proposals, and that’s why closed elections are expected.

An interesting case of another closed state is New Mexico. In the 2008 election President Obama won with 56.7% of the votes. The Hispanic vote was decisive in this state, but the Arizona Republican Governor Susana Martinez, who has high approval ratings, and the economic crisis, has given Mitt Romney a slight chance to win this state.

The swing states are the ones that will determine the election. If the electoral votes for each one of them are summed up, there are 150 electoral votes, and if Arizona is added, which may become a swing state at any moment, that brings it up to 161 electoral votes that don’t have a clear destiny: they may go Republican or Democrat. The only thing certain about this election is that it would be a close race and if Obama wins, it may not be a comfortable victory like in 2008. Both candidates will have to work hard to achieve the magic number of electoral votes: 270.

Image Courtesy of  Steve Adamson / Shutterstock.com

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Chicago, U.S.A - Aon Benfield, the global reinsurance intermediary and capital advisor of Aon plc, has released the latest edition of its Global Catastrophe Recap report, which reviews the natural disaster perils that occurred worldwide during May.

Published by Impact Forecasting, the firm’s catastrophe model development center of excellence, the report reveals that two earthquakes and subsequent aftershocks struck northern Italy within a nine-day period, killing 25 people, injuring more than 400 others and causing extensive damage to the cultural heritage throughout the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy, in addition to businesses and personal property.

An initial, combined economic loss estimate from both tremors stood at EUR5 billion (USD6.25 billion), following significant damage in the provinces of Modena, Ferrara, Reggio Emilia, Rovigo and Mantua.

In Asia, severe and prolonged periods of rain impacted China throughout the month, affecting at least 22 provinces and killing at least 102 people.

According to China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA), at least 143,000 homes were damaged or destroyed during one prolonged event. More than 949,400 hectares (2.34 million acres) of cropland were also affected, contributing to a total economic loss listed at CNY16.88 billion (USD2.68 billion).

Meanwhile, powerful thunderstorms struck eastern Japan, resulting in high winds and tornadoes that killed at least three people, injured 59 others, and damaged more than 1,845 buildings in six separate prefectures.

Steve Jakubowski, President of Impact Forecasting, said: “The Italian earthquakes resulted in the largest natural disaster loss for the country since the L’Aquila earthquake event in 2009. The seismic activity was not unexpected, as Italy has long been recognised as a region exposed to the possibility of significant earthquake activity. Given the level of insurance coverage in the region, it is anticipated that insured losses would reach minimally into the hundreds of millions of dollars (USD). However, it remains too early to determine how negligible re/insurance losses may be from this event.”

In the United States, two periods of severe weather impacted central and eastern sections of the country; the first causing widespread hail and wind damage from the Dakotas to Maryland, resulting in an economic loss estimated at USD275 million, and more than 30,000 insurance claims valued atUSD150 million. A secondary severe weather outbreak across the central and eastern U.S. at the end of the month spawned significant damage as well. According to a preliminary report from the South-western Insurance Information Service, insured losses in Oklahoma alone were estimated at USD400 million.

Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville Beach, Florida at peak intensity with 70 mph (110 kph) winds but did not cause any significant damage, injuries or fatalities.

And wildfires burned in several U.S. states during the month, including the largest fire ever recorded in New Mexico.

Excessive rainfall affected areas of the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec in May. In Thunder Bay, at least 1,100 homes were damaged as well as businesses and infrastructure, and flood damage with a 100-year return period was recorded in Montreal, where personal property and infrastructure were widely affected.

Additional flood events were recorded in Nepal, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Nicaragua, Cuba, Georgia, Brazil and Venezuela.

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Newark, U.S.A. – Today’s Presidential primary election is meaningless for citizens living in New Jersey, California, Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota. “This creates an alienated and cynical electorate that is becoming more disenfranchised with every election cycle,” says Jim Lynch, author of “The 2020 Players: A Futuristic View of the 2020 Presidential Election.”

Lynch asks, “Can you blame Americans for tuning out? This is not democracy; in fact, it just may be as bad as the backroom politics back in the old days of bosses and political machines.”

“As a result, millions of Americans had absolutely no voice in the Presidential selection process. Let’s face it; the primary system is broken,” says Lynch.

After today’s vote, which involves some 299 uncontested electoral votes, only Utah has yet to weigh in and they’ll hold off until June 26.

“Voting in America should be cherished as a sacred right, as a meaningful experience to every American. But voting has become totally meaningless for almost a third of the states participating in 2012 Republican primary balloting,” says Lynch.

“This flawed process is a ringing endorsement of the reform proposal to have a National One Day Primary on the same day in all 50 states for all presidential candidates. The single day primary would bring an end to local pandering to voters – like Newt Gingrich telling the people in Cape Canaveral ‘We should build a moon base’ – and to months of negative campaigning on TV and radio, one harmful and nauseating attack after another, without end.  And it would be far easier for both parties to unite behind the winners who emerge from the one day balloting,” says Lynch.

Lynch believes Americans must overhaul the political process and the insidious role that media advocacy plays in this process. “In my novel, The 2020 Players, I also advocate a viable three-party system, a single six-year term for President, and a ban on any political campaigning while in office.”

Jim Lynch is a native New Yorker, married with eight children and four grandchildren. His parents worked for the FBI. He spent eight years as an investigator and was an executive for AT&T. Lynch is a full time novelist.

Image Courtesy of  Jim Lynch

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Illegal immigration was the fastest growing federal arrest offense between 2005 and 2009, increasing an average rate of 23 percent each year, the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) announced today. In 2009, 84,749 suspects were arrested and booked for immigration offenses, up from 38,041 in 2005.

A federal arrest is a formal charge of violating federal law. Persons who were apprehended, detained, released or deported without a formal arrest charge were not included in the number of federal suspects arrested and processed.

During 2009, a record 183,986 suspects were arrested for federal offenses, up from 140,200 in 2005 and nearly double the 83,324 suspects arrested in 1995. Illegal immigration (46 percent) was the most common offense at arrest in 2009, followed by drug (17 percent) and supervision (13 percent) violations.

More than half (56 percent) of all federal arrests occurred in the five federal judicial districts along the U.S.-Mexico border: Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Western and Southern Texas. The federal caseload handled in these five districts in 2009 comprised more than a third of all federal defendants prosecuted (35 percent), convicted (35 percent) and sentenced to prison (37 percent).

Most federal defendants (77 percent) in cases terminated in 2009 had been detained prior to case disposition. Defendants were most likely to be detained when charged with immigration (95 percent), violent crime (87 percent), weapons (82 percent), and drug (81 percent) offenses. About 88 percent of defendants charged in the five judicial districts along the U.S.-Mexico border were detained in 2009.

Of the 193,234 matters concluded by U.S. attorneys in 2009, two out of three involved immigration (46 percent) or drug (20 percent) offenses. Immigration matters concluded increased an annual average of 31 percent since 2005, while drug matters declined an annual average of 1.4 percent.

About 48 percent of suspects in matters concluded were prosecuted by U.S. attorneys in 2009, compared to 60 percent of suspects in 2005. One reason for the decrease in prosecution by U.S. attorneys is the growth in immigration matters disposed by U.S. magistrates. About 67 percent of immigration offenders were disposed by U.S. magistrates in 2009, up from 46 percent in 2005.

Of the 95,000 federal cases concluded in 2009, 40 percent were represented by a public defender (up from 22 percent in 1995), 36 percent by a panel-appointed attorney (up from 32 percent in 1995) and 21 percent by a private attorney (down from 37 percent in 1995). Among cases terminated with a public defender in 2009, nearly 49 percent involved immigration offenses.

About 95,900 federal defendants were adjudicated in 2009, and most were convicted following a guilty plea (88 percent) or a bench or jury trial (3 percent). The median time from case filing to disposition was 6.5 months in 2009.

More than three-quarters (78 percent) of convicted defendants were sentenced to prison in 2009. The average prison term imposed on federal offenders in 2009 was 57 months, down from 61 months in 2005. Prison sentences in 2009 were an average of 82 months for drug offenses, compared to 113 months for violent offenses and 87 months for weapons offenses.

At year-end 2009, 393,810 persons were under some form of federal supervision. Of these, 62 percent were in secure confinement and 38 percent were in the community. Of offenders under active federal post-conviction supervision in the community, the majority of offenders (98,465) were on supervised release, compared to probation (22,748) and parole (2,158).

The number of federal prisoners age 55 and older nearly doubled, from 8,221 in 2000 to 15,323 in 2009. The median age of prisoners increased from age 35 in 2000 to age 37 in 2009. Most federal prisoners in 2009 were male (93 percent), black non-Hispanic (37 percent), and U.S. citizens (74 percent).

The reports, Federal Justice Statistics, 2009 and Federal Justice Statistics, 2009 – Statistical Tables, were written by BJS statistician Mark Motivans. The reports, related documents and additional information about the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ statistical publications and programs can be found on the BJS website at http://www.bjs.gov/.

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