Washington, U.S.A. — The Concord Coalition has said that new projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) underscore the need for Washington to commit to long-term fiscal reforms while dealing with this year’s looming budget decisions. Concord said the new numbers should also provide a sobering picture for this year’s candidates for federal office one that should temper election-year impulses to offer voters unrealistic promises.

“Once again, CBO’s projections show that if politicians don’t deviate from current policies, the country will continue down an unsustainable path that threatens to weaken the country, jeopardize our standard of living and leave our children and future generations with unmanageable levels of government debt,” said Robert L. Bixby, Concord’s executive director. “These numbers should frame this year’s political debates, and candidates from both parties would do well to spend some time studying their implications.”

“We need to put the country on a better fiscal path,” he added, “and candidates must clearly explain to voters — with specifics, not empty rhetoric — how they plan to do that. It will require setting priorities and making changes throughout the federal budget, and voters deserve to hear credible plans for doing this.”

CBO’s Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook estimates that the federal deficit for this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30, will total $1.1 trillion. While that is down slightly from CBO’s March projection, it will be the fourth consecutive deficit of more than $1 trillion. In addition, federal debt held by the public would reach 73 percent of GDP, which CBO notes is the highest level since 1950 and is “about twice the share that it measured at the end of 2007, before the financial crisis and recession.”

The CBO prepared two sets of projections. The first — the CBO’s “baseline projections” — assumes that current laws will generally remain in effect. An alternative scenario, however, looks at what could happen if Congress changes certain laws to continue many current policies. This alternative scenario presents a far more troubling long-term picture. Using the new CBO numbers, The Concord Coalition today updated its own “Plausible Baseline,” which applies what Concord considers to be realistic assumptions about future policy decisions. These projections are close to the CBO’s alternative scenario.

The budget office notes that the outlook for budget deficits, federal debt and the economy are “especially uncertain now because substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect in January 2013.” These changes have often been called the “fiscal cliff” because if Congress allows all of them to take effect at once, it could cause substantial short-term economic damage, perhaps triggering a recession.

Under Concord’s Plausible Baseline, deficits between 2013 and 2022 would be much higher, averaging over 5 percent of GDP rather than 1 percent. Debt held by the public would grow to 93 percent of GDP by 2022, the highest level since shortly after World War II. As the budget office points out, that is not a sustainable level of federal debt.

“The differences between the CBO baseline and either CBO’s alternative scenario or Concord’s Plausible Baseline are striking, and they highlight the importance of the policy decisions that elected officials must confront before the end of the year,” Bixby said.

“While it is important to support the economic recovery, Washington should also be laying the groundwork for the big fiscal reforms that are necessary to put the federal budget on a more responsible track over the long term. It is possible to do both, but this will require more thoughtful policy-making and greater bipartisanship than we have seen in Washington recently.”

• Choices over tax policy, account for the bulk of the difference between the CBO baseline and the more plausible scenarios within the 10-year budget window. Extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, along with fixes to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) and debt service costs would add $5.2 trillion to deficits over 10 years.
• In CBO’s baseline projections, mandatory spending will increase from 13.3 percent of GDP in 2013 to 14.4 percent in 2022. Nearly all of that increase would be due to the growth of just Social Security and Medicare — representing the effect of the baby boom generation entering retirement. CBO projects that by 2022 over half of the entire federal budget will be spent on just Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.
• For Medicare specifically, baseline growth is not attributable to health care inflation but instead to demographics.
• The mandatory spending category of income security, now higher than normal because of the recession, would drop by over 60 percent over the budget window (from 2.1 percent of GDP to 1.3 percent).
• Interest payments under the Concord Plausible Baseline would more than double, growing from 1.4 percent of GDP this year to 3.6 percent in 2022, and would cost over $5 trillion during the 10-year period.
• If the caps included in the Budget Control Act are adhered to, CBO projects that discretionary spending would decrease from 8.3 percent of GDP in 2012 to 5.6 percent by 2022 — the lowest level in the last 50 years.

For more about our plausible baseline visit:

http://www.concordcoalition.org/concord-coalition-plausible-baseline

Image Courtesy of  Third Way

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Washington, U.S.A. – 857 empty desks on the National Mall represent the number of students who drop out of American schools every hour of every school day. On June 20 The College Board kicked off a nationwide movement to make education a more prominent issue in the 2012 presidential campaign.

The effort calls upon the major candidates to discuss and debate their plans for reform amid an alarming decline in the state of American education. The College Board launched the campaign on the National Mall with a compelling public installation of 857 school desks, representing the 857 students who drop out of American schools every hour of every school day.

“‘Don’t Forget Ed’ recognizes that education is the foundation of our society. If our schools fail, then so will everything else — from our economy to national security,” said College Board President Gaston Caperton. “Yet every four years, the issue of education is shockingly underplayed on the campaign trail. That’s why this year we are encouraging candidates all over the country to tell voters precisely how they would reverse the sharp decline of American education. Parents, teachers, students and administrators have had enough of the silence. This year they are speaking loud and clear, and the College Board is committed to amplifying their voices.”

“Don’t Forget Ed” is an innovative, multi-tactical campaign that is being launched on the National Mall with an installation of 857 empty school desks symbolizing the number of students who drop out of school every hour of every school day.

The campaign includes a website, a petition to be presented to the candidates at the nominating conventions, a full-page ad in The New York Times, and a PSA featuring former New York City Schools Chancellor Joel Klein and Merone Tesfaye.  Tesfaye is a graduating senior at New York’s LaGuardia High School of Music & Art and Performing Arts and will be tweeting and speaking to promote the campaign over the summer months.

On August 15, “Don’t Forget Ed” will rally thousands of voices via Twitter and Facebook in order to send a powerful message to the candidates.”Don’t Forget Ed” will continue staging additional events in conjunction with the nominating conventions and leading up to Election Day to generate further support and engagement.

“We’re not criticizing any candidates and we are not advocating a particular policy. We are mobilizing students and others to create a more visible constituency that wants education to be a prominent issue in the election,” said Peter Kauffmann, vice president of communications at the College Board. A poll commissioned by the College Board in April 2012 found that 67 percent of voters in nine key swing states believe education is an “extremely important” issue in the run-up to the general election.

More than 1.2 million students drop out of school every year, which averages out to 6,000 students every school day and 857 every hour. Recent data show that students in this country rank 25th in math and 21st in science among students from 30 industrialized nations.

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Presidential candidates go to great lengths to claim the moral high ground as they jockey for support from the American public. While contenders from Gingrich to Obama seek the imprimatur of religious institutions across the land, the fractious political landscape scarcely reflects the values to which all would aspire.

Into the battleground of the farm state of Iowa comes an unusual native son: Marc Daniels, American-Jewish author of the German published ‘Der Himmelsgarten: Das Handbuch des Spirituellen Gartners’ (‘Heaven’s Garden: The Handbook of Spiritual Gardening’).

As the grandson of Ross Daniels, the inventor of the Ross Root Feeder, Marc Daniels’s horticultural and Iowan roots run deep. Yet it took an eight-year journey into the mystical heritage of Judaism and studies in both Germany and Israel to reveal the choicest fruits of his Hawkeye stock.

Daniels has come to Iowa for the January 3rd caucus to advance his campaign and to meet with press and potential US publishers. His book, preliminarily titled for English publication as ‘Weed Out Hate: Sow the Seeds of Peace,’ is the groundwork for the Weed Out Hate initiative and is ripe for American publication.

One need not have a spiritual disposition to appreciate the wisdom of this work. The Weed Out Hate initiative integrates family values by addressing the epidemic bullying problem through gardening pedagogy. It is the quintessential children’s grass-roots instrument that transcends party politics, cultural, and religious differences.

Elementary schools around the country have already begun to integrate his Weed Out Hate gardening pedagogy into Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s tenants of social inclusion by distributing specially designed Sunflower Peace Seed Packs, donated by Daniels, to school children.

Each of the packages contains an anti-bullying message and encourages children to email President Obama asking him to organize a Weed Out Hate gathering. At this globally televised White House-sponsored mega event, the children of the world would be called upon to fulfill Dr. Martin Luther King’s Promised Land vision by rooting out hatred once and for all.

Daniels’s  initiative has attracted endorsements from around the world, including those from German President Christian Wulff and Chancellor Angela Merkel, to Dr. Walter Milton, Jr., Superintendent of the Springfield IL Public Schools. Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, and Iowa Governor Terry Brandstad have all issued children-oriented anti-bullying proclamations, calling for weeds of prejudice to be extracted and seeds of peace and understanding to be planted.

With Senator Dick Durbin’s (D-IL) assistance, Daniels is pressing President Obama for a declaration of support. He has also received endorsements and encouragement for his initiative from Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachman, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum at various town hall and Republican Party sponsored forums.

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With his near-win in Iowa and his recent rise in the polls, Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum is facing new scrutiny about his views on intelligent design and evolution. Reporters and others have expressed particular interest in the so-called “Santorum Amendment” authored by Senator Santorum, which was adopted in revised form in the Conference Report of the landmark No Child Left Behind Act.

The Santorum Amendment won overwhelming bipartisan support in the United States Senate. In fact, Sen. Ted Kennedy enthusiastically endorsed the Amendment on the Senate floor. Others voting in favor of the Amendment included Sen. Hillary Clinton, Sen. Joe Biden, Sen. Barbara Boxer, Sen. Harry Reid, Sen. John McCain, and Sen. Sam Brownback.

The Santorum Amendment did not mandate teaching intelligent design, nor did it encourage teaching creationism or religion in the classroom. Instead, it encouraged open discussion and inquiry by teachers and students of the evidence both for and against controversial scientific theories such as Darwin’s theory of evolution.

The approach advocated in the Santorum Amendment is favored by the vast majority of Americans, no matter what their race, gender, or political party. According to a nationwide Zogby poll in 2009, 80 percent of likely voters “agree that teachers and students should have the academic freedom to discuss both the strengths and weaknesses of evolution as a scientific theory.”

“Allowing discussions of all the scientific evidence about evolution in the classroom is good for students and good for science. It’s the mainstream approach supported by most Americans,” says Dr. John West, Associate Director of Discovery Institute’s Center for Science & Culture. “Those who are trying to put a gag order on teachers and students to insulate Darwin’s theory from critical inquiry are the real extremists.”

Image Courtesy of  http://www.flickr.com/photos/gageskidmore/

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Socialbakers announced that it has launched a campaign to identify the most (and least) influential, engaging and popular presidential candidates on Facebook, including President Obama, via public information on the world’s largest social network.

Socialbakers’ social media analytics tracked more than 10 million Facebook Pages and Places and billions of individual user interactions. All findings are available through a new political infographic and microsite about each candidate on Facebook. With the upcoming Iowa caucus, this groundbreaking research reveals what drives engagement, influence and conversations for all eight Democratic and Republican presidential political candidates on Facebook.

Socialbakers tracked interactions between December 1-31 to measure engagement and changes in online candidate popularity. Socialbakers will also track the same information for January’s New Hampshire primary and upcoming debates and other newsworthy events. According to a recent Pew study, Facebook users are more politically engaged and are more than twice as likely to participate in political meetings or rallies. Socialbakers new infographic outlines which candidates are leading, and which are lagging.

“Politicians and brands have a tremendous opportunity to go beyond counting the number of ‘fans’ or ‘likes’ – they must pay attention to why people are talking about them and what they care about,” said Jan Rezab, Socialbakers CEO. “Fan and community engagement is the key to success. Politicians today can measure public information about Facebook user engagement to make more intelligent decisions about what to post, when to post and how to best stimulate conversation.”

Key Finding: User Engagement, Viral Reach and Popularity:

Viral Reach (The total reach for each candidate when people “like” and comment, multiplied by the average number of friends per Facebook user to provide a comparable number)

• Ron Paul has the highest overall viral reach, followed by Mitt Romney and Rick Perry
• Ron Paul leads with 59,554 “people talking about” him this past week (second to Obama)
• Rick Perry has the most engaging single-post amongst all candidates, followed by Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich
• Obama’s most engaging post was a family portrait, yet had the lowest overall engagement rate* when compared to the other candidates
• Ron Paul increased engagement rate by 69 percent, followed by a near tie between Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, with a 58-percent increase and 57-percent increase respectively
• Rick Santorum decreased engagement rate by -7 percent

Peer-to-Peer Interaction (all debates, comments, conversations to each other’s posts on candidate’s page)

• Michelle Bachmann leads in person-to-person interactions among Facebook users, followed by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman
• Obama leads with 50 percent of the total interactions. Ron Paul leads the Republican Party with 19 percent, which is 2x and 3x higher than Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.

Candidate’s Facebook Fans:

• Obama is leading with the most number of fans at 24 million, followed by Mitt Romney at 1.3 million, Ron Paul with 672,483 and Michelle Bachmann with 460,336.
• Rick Santorum has the fastest-growing fan base throughout the last 30 days (23-percent growth) surpassing Jon Huntsman’s growth (18-percent growth).

*Engagement rate: The number of “likes” and comments per post divided by a candidate’s number of fans.

Rich Koele / Shutterstock.com

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As the Republican primaries near, Zoosk, a romantic social network, recently surveyed more than 4,000 U.S. singles to gather their thoughts on the presidential candidates.  Questions ranged from which candidate has the best hairdo, to which contending couple would make for the best double date, and to who has the best sense of humor.  The survey findings resulted in the following:

Singles say the Obamas would be their first choice couple for a double date.

• 38% of singles say they would choose a double date with the Obamas over any of the other presidential candidate couples.
• 16% of singles would choose to enjoy an evening out with the Bachmanns for a double date.
• 9% of singles would pick the Pauls.  The Gingrichs, Perrys, and Romneys each received 8% of singles’ vote for double date companions.

Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney have the “best hairdos” among the Republican candidates.

• 35% of singles give Michele Bachmann their vote for best hairstyle. She is followed by Mitt Romney (21%) and Rick Perry (15%).
• Rick Santorum received the fewest votes for his “do,” nabbing just 4% of the vote.

Republican men prefer Newt Gingrich, while Republican women prefer Mitt Romney for the GOP nominee. When asked, “If you were to vote today, who would receive your vote?”…

• Republican men gravitated towards Newt Gingrich with 33% of men saying the former Speaker of the House is their top choice compared to 18% of men who would choose Romney.
• Republican women have a slight preference for Mitt Romney with the former Governor of Massachusetts gathering 25% of the Republican female votes compared to 24% of women who would chose Gingrich.

Who is the “sexiest” candidate?

• Clearly, Michele Bachmann gets the sexiest female candidate vote, but 41% of single women say President Obama is the sexiest candidate among the 2012 contenders.

Singles vote President Barack Obama as having the “best sense of humor” among the candidates.

• 30% of singles say President Obama has the best sense of humor among all the presidential candidates.
• 15% of singles prefer Newt Gingrich’s humor.
• Tied for third place with 12% each of the “best sense of humor” vote are Rick Perry and Ron Paul.

Singles wish Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were on the ballot.

• When asked who they wish were on the ballot in 2012, 57% of singles who identify themselves as Democrats and 30% of singles who identify themselves as Independents say Hillary Clinton.
• 30% of single Republicans say they wish Donald Trump were running for president in 2012.

More singles than ever plan to vote in the 2012 presidential election.

• Compared to 64% of Americans who voted in the 2008 presidential election, singles are a politically active group. An equal percentage of single men and women (87%) say they plan to vote next year.

The data for this report was conducted online in December 2011 and fielded 4,218 responses from singles in the U.S. who use Zoosk.  Respondents were equally divided among political parties with 30% being Democrat, 34% being Republican, and 36% being Independent.

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Herman Cain informed his aides on Tuesday that he was going to reassess his campaign for presidency after yet another woman stepped forward with allegations of improper sexual conduct. Cain said that the accusations created too much of a cloud around his campaign. He has acknowledged the turmoil the allegations have caused and will only stay on schedule for the next few days.

“If a decision is made, different than to plow ahead, you all will be the first to know,” Cain stated. This is the first time since accusations of inappropriate sexual conduct began that Cain has reconsidered being a part of the presidential race. On Tuesday morning, however, a spokesperson for the campaign explicitly said that Cain would not drop out of the race.

Ginger White, a Georgian woman, came forward with allegations of a 13 year extramarital affair with Cain. The potential presidential candidate denied this, just like he had denied previous accusations of sexual harassment from other women. “It was just a friendship relationship,” he claimed.

“That being said, obviously, this is a cause for reassessment.” Cain continued, “With this latest one, we have to do an assessment as to whether or not this is going to create too much of a cloud, in some people’s minds, as to whether or not they would be able to support us going forth.”

Claiming the firestorm caused by this episode has taken a toll on Cain and his family, he told his aides that the people will have to make a decision about whether or not to believe him or the women speaking out against him. Even though the fundraising for his campaign has begun to fall, as the public’s opinion of him has, Cain was still determined to continue with his bid for presidency.

However, in a conference call, he only said he would keep certain, imminent commitments. This includes delivering a speech regarding foreign policy at Hillsdale College in Michigan. Cain did cancel one previously planned event and withdrew from a party where he would meet with journalists, Matt Lauer and Barbara Walters.

Representative Scott Plakon, one of Cain’s Florida campaign chairmen, said the woman accusing him of having an affair should produce more evidence. Plakon said that if Cain did have an affair, Republican voters would be turned off. “That would be very problematic,” Plakon stated. “There’s the affair itself, and then there’s the truthful factor. He’s been so outspoken in these denials.”

Darren Brode / Shutterstock.com

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