Konstantin Zavinovsky: ”Russia could risks losing its sovereignty and identity in result of protests.” Russia could face losing a hard earned identity, destabilization and come out a weakened country if ‘outside supported’ protests should continue says ‘Geopolitics’ editor Zavinovsky.

Last December, as the first protests of the Russian opposition were taking place, U.S. Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain challenged Prime Minister Vladimir Putin by predicting a wave of the so-called “Arab Spring” in Russia. In fact, despite being a phenomenon caused by socio-political situations in the particular countries concerned, the so-called “Arab Spring” has not evolved without outside interference.

It obviously comprises of some elements resembling what are known as the “color revolutions” that have deprived a number of countries of their national sovereignty and historic identity. These revolutions take their name after a particular variety of brand names, usually referring to a color or a flower and easily identifiable by the public, which reveals the involvement of highly skilled public relations experts.

The most notorious among these “color revolutions” have occurred in Georgia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia, with less successful attempts in other countries as well, such as Belarus. The countries involved are almost always ex-Soviet republics, or other states ruled by governments that are on friendly terms with Russia.

The aim seems to be to replace these governments with new ones that would be hostile to Moscow and allied to Washington as it is from there that the funding as well as technical support – “stage direction” – comes from.

There are currently 5 candidates running in the presidential elections in Russia, and the one who is to become the head of state will be responsible not only for the destiny of Russia itself, but also for the stability of its international relations. ”Prokhorov’s potential victory in the March elections; a US-style liberal, would mean the success of the “snow revolution” – or perhaps “frost” which, in turn, could lead to bringing Russia into the hands of the United States” claims Zavinovsky.

”Prokhorov, a successful manager, would run the country as an enterprise or a business according to the logic of the market, but not as a state that needs well-defined social policies. In the case of a win by Communist party member Zyuganov, the threat to national sovereignty would be eliminated, but likewise would be the prospect for economic growth of Russia, as Zyuganov is nothing but the residue of the communist past that made the Russian economy militarized and backward.

With Zyuganov as president, the international equilibrium would be broken, since he is not disposed for a constructive dialogue with the U.S. Mironov is a supporter of the protest and, as he stated yesterday, he is prepared to include Alexei Navalny, one of the main architects of the opposition in the streets, into his government.

So, if the former Chairman of the Federation Council of Russia becomes President of the Russian Federation, his government would comprise of a man whose activity has been funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the NGO linked to the CIA and the U.S Congress.

Zhyrinovsky is a nationalist and a bitter enemy of the United States, so in case of his victory, he would do away with all the opposition funded by the U.S., but his nationalism would make it impossible to hold a dialogue at the international level on the basis of equality.As a result, Putin seems to be the only Russian politician capable of ensuring the sovereignty and independence of his country in the face of external threats and at the same time he is ready for a constructive dialogue with other international players.

Which is confirmed by the words of the U.S. ambassador Michael McFaul in his interview to the Russian daily “Kommersant “, in which he declares his readiness to proceed with the “reset” of US-Russian relations, if Putin is elected president in the elections the 4th of March.”

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As Russia’s Gazprom admitted that it had cut gas supplies to Europe at the height of the current cold spell, Ukraine said it is ready to help Russia deliver the necessary volumes of gas to Europe and called for greater European cooperation to modernise its gas transport infrastructure and improve energy security for the EU.

Italy, Austria and France were reporting cuts of as much as 30 percent of Russian gas over the weekend. Analysts have said that Ukraine, which as a transit country accounts for more than 70 percent of Russian gas shipments to the EU, is as much a victim of Moscow as the rest of Europe.

Gazprom Deputy Chief Andrey Kruglov was reported to be conferring with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has in the past both threatened and implemented cuts to Ukraine and the EU.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Yuri Boiko was quoted by news agencies saying that shipments to Ukraine had fallen in recent days. Gazprom admitted this but claimed the reason was Russia’s enhanced need because of the cold. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych meanwhile called on energy market participants to seek joint solutions for the future.

“We rely on our European partners, international financial institutions to implement the agreements on their participation in upgrading Ukraine’s gas transportation system,” the Ukrainian president said at the 48th Munich Security Conference on Friday.

He stressed that the situation showed the need for cooperation among all parties and respect for clear, transparent and fair rules of the game in the energy sector. There was a need to balance the interests of Ukraine as the main transit country, Russia as the main supplier, and the European Union as a consumer, President Yanukovych said.

In his speech at the Munich conference, the Ukrainian president also spoke of what he termed the one-sided conditions of the 2009 gas contract with Russia. In 2009, then Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, signed a multi-billion and multi-year dollar gas deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia that is currently forcing Ukraine to pay more than $500 a cubic meter for Gazprom’s supply of gas, even though world market prices are around $400 per cubic meter.

Analysts in Washington are concerned that Russia may be using its Gazprom supplies to pressure Ukraine to submit to closer Soviet-style ties. They fear that Moscow may try and use its energy supplies and pricing to stop President Yanukovych from his announced aim of signing an Association Agreement with the EU and developing closer ties with Europe.

The recent trial and conviction of Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, who was herself a one-time business partner of Russia in the natural gas sector, focussed on her signing of the high-priced 2009 deal with Gazprom without any Cabinet consultation when she was Prime Minister. It was that same deal which is now causing Ukraine to find itself in financial difficulty and a potential hostage of Moscow’s leverage.

 
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