Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers adopted the 2012 plan of immediate measures concerning the country’s integration to the European Union. The document deals with internal reform issues (the likes of gas transporting system modernization, institutional reform in Ukraine, and hosting EURO 2012), as well as questions of deepening Ukraine-EU ties: visa liberalization, cooperation with EU police and justice offices, expanding trade cooperation, etc.

Besides the listed domestic reforms, the document stipulates measures to enhance regional development of the country, restructuring of the national gas managing company Naftogaz, as well as preparations to the Association Agreement implementation.

Ukraine also plans to enhance cooperation with the EU in the areas of nuclear safety, research and technology, defense, space exploration. Additionally, the new document sets the agenda for creating the common airspace with the EU. According to the plan, Ukraine intends to join the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity.

Ukraine and the EU share a 1,391 kilometer long border and have established close cooperation in a number of areas. Ukraine is EU’s strategic gas transit partner. Its gas transporting system services 70% of the Russian gas export to Europe. The EU is one of Ukraine’s key trade partners with the trade volume in 2011 constituting USD 44 billion and demonstrating a 36% growth.

European integration has been a long-term foreign policy goal for Ukraine. The country began negotiations with the EU in 1999. Various officials of the EU member states, including Czech Republic, Finland, and Lithuania, backed Ukraine’s European ambition.
By 2007 the sides agreed to eventually sign the Association Agreement. After 21 rounds of negotiations over the Association Agreement, Ukraine and the EU finalized the negotiating process on December 19, 2011.

The Association Agreement will regulate political cooperation of the partners, as well as introduce the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between Ukraine and the EU. Initialing of the political and, partly, economical sections of the document took place in Brussels on March 30, 2012.

Currently the sides are working on the technical aspects of the document preparation for signing and further ratification. Meanwhile, the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych stated that Ukraine perceived the Association Agreement as comprehensive program of reforms.

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Dmitro Dzhangirov, a Russia and East Europe expert, in a recent article has stated that further bilateral relations between Russia and the Ukraine will benefit from Vladimir Putin’s 12 years of experience. Mr Putin is expected to return to the Presidency later this week following the election on March 4.

Dzhangirov said: “From point of view of the Ukrainian elite Vladimir Putin is a difficult and hard person and thus an unpleasant negotiator. What is considered to be “pragmatism” in Moscow is often perceived as “dictatorship” in Kiev. Strictly speaking, the style of Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian policy can be described as “pragmatism of the strong towards the weak”, but that’s no help for the Ukrainian leadership.

“However, if you remember the last years of Leonid Kuchma’s presidency, within the “multi-vector” framework he was able to have a dialogue with his Russian counterpart on almost equal terms. And the current problems are consequences of mistakes and miscalculations in 2005-2009. Today Vladimir Putin meets on the Bankova Street a person who does not allow Kiev fix easily mistakes and miscalculations of the previous and disloyal to the Kremlin power.

“On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin’s return is expected with fear, the hypothetical variant of the revolutionary “Arabic-like” chaos causes well-founded fear. For the West such fear is caused, first of all, by the presence of second nuclear power in Russia. For Ukraine interruptions in delivery of energy sources and a sharp decline of exports in the east direction may become a real disaster.

“However, the apocalyptic scenario of the immediate future is rather a warning to most fervent “democrats” than a real prediction. But apart from the “stability or chaos” alternative given by the vote on March 4, the question “What is the real alternative to Vladimir Putin in Russia’s Ukrainian policy?” seems quite correct.

“Let’s start with the fact that only “parties of power” tried to build inter-party contacts with colleagues, except for the Ukrainian and the Russian communists, at the moment they are Party of Regions and United Russia. The Ukrainian National-Democratic parties, traditionally citing Lenin’s phrase that “the Russian democracy ends when it comes to the Ukrainian question”, did not even try to find partners in Russia.

The exception was Reforms and Order Party that had more or less regular contacts and even documents signed with the Russian party Union of Right Forces.

“After the “Orange Revolution” the URF party leader Boris Nemtsov was a temporary advisor to the Ukrainian President, but his active participation in the confrontation Viktor Yushchenko – Yulia Tymoshenko had nothing to do with strengthening Russian-Ukrainian inter-party relations.

One can also remember a very short “flirt” between the block of Ukrainian socialists and Motherland block in 2005, which also didn’t get further development. ”In this connection a reasonable question appears. What kind of relationship are the relative “Ukrainian democrats” looking for with hypothetical “non-Putin Russia”?

“The relationship can’t be built from scratch – the Russians have the January 2009 “gas contract” and the April 2010 “Kharkov agreements”. There is also Gazprom’s system of treaties and agreements with European partners both on the gas supply and the construction of gas pipelines.

“And all these are trumps in the hands of the President of Russia, regardless of his name and political views. Could another president of the Russian Federation take a softer position towards Kiev? Yes, he can but only after he at full scale performs all techniques of hard negotiating, starting with the simplest formula of international relations: “Pacta sunt servanda” (“agreements must be kept”).

“The fact is that for any “non Putin” the mentioned documents are a starting point for a dialogue, while for Vladimir Putin they are an intermediate result of a long 12-year negotiating process with all its uneasy and obscure moments and nuances.

“As for the potential of Ukrainian-Russian relations, it is best characterized by the following public inquiry. 64% of Russians have a “very good” and “mostly good” attitude towards Ukraine (Levada Center, the end of January 2012), and this factor should be taken into account by any Russian president.”

Dmitro Dzhangirov is a journalist and Russia – East Europe expert

Source: Russia Insights www.russia-insights.com

Image Courtesy of   Mark III Photonics / Shutterstock.com

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Oscar Aubert, political scientist and expert on West Europe, Russia and CIS, has stated that Ukraine and Russia are in a good place to further bilateral ties.

Aubert said: “Russia and the Ukraine have a long shared history. Russia sees Ukraine as part of its own identity. But Russia’s political elite has no wish to restore the USSR, and it clearly understands that this would be impossible. However, the Ukraine remains the elephant in the room. Its closest neighbour and transit to mainland Europe, the Ukraine plays a major strategic role in Russia’s role in and relations with the rest of Europe.

“Meanwhile, the defining objective of Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been to adopt a truly independent course from Russia and ‘return to European civilization’, whilst Russian interests in Ukraine remain manifold.

“In 2009 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared that for Russia, Ukrainians since the dawn of time have been and remain ‘not only neighbours, but a brotherly people’. Therefore he regarded it as an obligation on Ukraine’s part to maintain ‘tight economic cooperation’ and ‘solidly kindred, humanitarian ties’ with Russia.

“In more practical terms, Russia has not managed to construct a single coherent conception of how to bring its interests to bear on the reality that Russia and Ukraine are now two sovereign states.

“In a recent Chatham House paper, Alexander Bogomolov and Oleksandr Lytvynenko argue that for Russia, “maintaining influence over Ukraine is more than a foreign policy priority.

“Russia’s socio-economic model limits its capacity to act as a pole of attraction for Ukraine. As a result, Russia relies on its national myths to devise narratives and projects intended to bind Ukraine in a ‘common future’ with Russia and other post-Soviet states. These narratives are translated into influence in Ukraine through channels such as the Russian Orthodox Church, the mass media, formal and informal business networks, and non-governmental organisations.

“Russia’s soft power project with regard to Ukraine emphasises cultural and linguistic boundaries over civic identities.” ”This project they speak of underlines the importance of the Ukraine to Russia. Late year Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov in Novo-Ogaryovo to discuss the need to develop the investment component in trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Ukraine.

“The return of Vladimir Putin as President will be positive in securing closer ties between the two great nations, with Mr. Putin keen to target energy as a key component of any future agreement. Mr Azarov has said himself that Kiev is ready to seek compromise and “win-win solutions” in the gas issue.” Oscar Aubert is a sociologist, political scientist, an expert for West Europe, Russia and CIS

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