Somali politicians and world leaders met in Istanbul May 31, 2012, initiating a two day conference that attempts to end the two decades of anarchy in Somalia. The conference is to discuss the end of the transitional/interim, UN-backed government that is due to end in August 2012. This is the second of two conferences held this year about Somalia’s instability, the first being held in London.

The conference is being held in Istanbul, Turkey because of the aid and influence Turkey has given to Somalia in the past year. However, some Somali politicians are unhappy with how Turkey has handled the conference because the Somali officials were not consulted about who to invite to the conference.

Turkey’s influence in Somalia began after the devastating drought in Somalia in 2010 when Turkey first increased its aid to the country. According to the BBC, where other countries tried and failed to help Somalia, Turkey has actually brought about significant change; they have built roads, schools, and hospitals. Turkey was also one of the first countries to begin having commercial flights to Mogadishu again, starting last year. During the famine and drought in 2010 Prime Minister Erdogan was the first leader from outside of Africa to visit Somalia in almost 20 years.

On 23 May 2012, Somali officials from many disparate groups signed a document that will enable the transition from the interim government of Somalia to a stable and lasting one. The transition period is three months, meaning that the new government will be elected on 20 August 2012. Because of this early deadline and upcoming significant change, the peace conference is occurring at a perfect time to discuss Somalia’s future.

The main topic of discussion for this conference is the upcoming elections and the incoming government. Other issues discussed are a common international policy toward Somalia and economic issues such as energy, water, and roads. This conference agenda differs slightly from that of the one held earlier in the year in London which discussed terrorism and piracy more than Somalia’s future. This change in topics gives some hope for the possible stability of the Republic of Somalia.

Somalia is still plagued by the existence of al-Shabab, the al-Qaeda backed terrorist group which controls most of the Southern region of Somalia. In fact, the Somali government until very recently only had control of the capital, Mogadishu. However, very recent activity from Somali and African Union troops has allowed for the liberation of two strategic cities, Afgoye and Afmadow, from al-Shabab.

The last stronghold for al-Shabab is the port city of Kismayo where much of Somalia’s piracy calls home. The hope is that the port city will be taken by 20 August 2012 for the incoming government and to widen the electorate.

Image Courtesy of  Foreign and Commonwealth Office

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The African Union (AU) and Somali interim governmental troops took another key town, Afmadow, in the battle against al-Qaeda backed terrorist group al-Shabab on May 31. This victory comes only days after the AU and Somali government managed to take the strategic point of Afgoye the previous Friday. With these two victories Somalia is beginning to turn the tide on the terrorist group living within its borders.

Afmadow is a city in the south of the country, an area deep within the control of al-Shabab. The town has been a prime target for the Kenyan troops who began patrolling the south of Somalia October 2011. According to the African Union commanders, al-Shabab abandoned the city without a fight as the troops approach.

This retreat may be due to al-Shabab’s failure to keep Afgoye earlier. However, the retreat could also be a strategic ploy, since al-Shabab claimed that its previous retreat from Afgoye was intentional. A Somali analyst, Mohammed Abdulahi Hassan, claims that the militants most likely do not have the force to defeat the Kenyan troops.

Although these towns have been taken, al-Shabab still controls a large part of The Republic of Somalia. However, it is losing its hold on essential strongholds and cities, such as Afmadow and Afgoye. Both contain routes that lead to all other regions of the country. Afmadow is only 115km (71 miles) from Kismayo, the home base for al-Shabab and the main port city for many of the Somali pirates.

With the city of Afgoye and the town of Afmadow under the control of the Somali government, the port city is the only remaining stronghold of the group. Hassan claims that if Kismayo falls, al-Shabab will be “in a desperate position both politically and financially.”

However there may have been some exchange of fighting in Kismayo already. Al-Shabab claims that unidentified warships attacked the city and were repelled by the al-Shabab fighters. One al-Shabab official, Sheikh Hassan Yaqub, claimed, “the mujahideen fighters opened fire and repulsed two military ships that approached the coast of Kismayo, they were coming close to the coast when they were attacked.” The war vessels then returned fire and wounded a young boy, but no other casualties occurred.

Currently there is no confirmation on which country sent the war vessels or even if they were attempting to attack the city of Kismayo yet. The Kenyan army has naval patrols close to that area, but would not confirm if its vessels were those in the clash. Nine warships owned by the European Union deployed from France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Italy and the Netherlands were also in the area. However, these ships are specifically reserved for the anti-piracy mission.

The interim Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali told the BBC, “hopefully the next target will be Kismayo and then we will proceed to other towns and cities…surely but slowly we are getting our country back from al-Shabab.”

In addition to the taking of Afmadow, the African Union and Somali military hope to take Kismayo by August 20. This date was set by the many disparate groups within Somalia on May 30 for the official elections to take place and the end of the interim government, yet another – although non-military – way in which the country is progressing.

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The interim president of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, was attacked in his armored convoy on May 28 by the al-Qeada associated group al-Shabab. The attack lasted about thirty minutes, until the African Union troops accompanying the president were forced to fire shells. According to the BBC, one Somali government soldier was killed and four were wounded in the attack. The president arrived at his destination unscathed.

The president was attacked on the Afgoye corridor near Elashu while taking a rare trip out of the capital city Mogadishu. This corridor has nearly 400,000 refugees, the world’s largest concentration of displaced people, who were forced to flee from violence attributed to criminal gangs and militia in 2007 and 2008. The president’s visit was prompted by the victory of African Union and interim governmental forces on May 25 over the al-Shabab stronghold of Afgoye.

The battle for Afgoye lasted four days and is largely considered a great victory for the Somali government and the African Union. Al-Shabab often used Afgoye as a place to launch attacks at Mogadishu, because of its proximity. The town is on a strategic crossroads that allows access to the north, west, and south of Somalia, making this particular loss a huge blow to al-Shabab. It is now likely that the members of al-Shabab are hiding in the nearby villages and farmlands. Al-Shabab has been terrorizing Somalia since 1991, when the last central government failed.

The relative instability of Somalia after the fall of its last government is what has allowed for the presence of piracy and al-Shabab control. Until the election of August 2000, Somalia was without an established government. Since then there have been several presidents who have all tried to regain control of the country from al-Shabab and have succeeded at varying degrees. Recently, President Ahmed has had great success with the removal of al-Shabab from Afgoye and the reconstruction going on in Mogadishu.

However, there are still other groups in northern Somalia that have added to the instability. Somaliland and Puntland are two areas that claim they are independent of the Republic of Somalia and have tried several times to create their own representational government or constitutional democracy. Although Somaliland has remained relatively stable it still has border disputes with Puntland and neither country is recognized by the global community.

Although al-Shabab has been defeated twice now in only a week’s time, it still maintains its hope for the end of the Somali government. A pro-Shabab website claimed that the attack was against “the head of the enemy” and that Sharif had taken refuge behind “African Union troops and white gunmen for safety.” The group also claims that the retreat from Afgoye was a strategic one and that they will be back.

African Union troops have been essential to maintaining the stability and protection of the government in Somalia. Other entities have also aided at certain times, such as the United Nations and the United States. The intervention by the United States resulted in the loss of several soldiers, most widely known from the film “Black Hawk Down.” After this failure, the US was reluctant to engage in other African affairs, such as the genocide in Rwanda.

The African Union has been the most involved in the stability of Somalia and seems to be making progress. Last year the AU, in tandem with Somali government troops, was responsible for ejecting al-Shabab fighters from Mogadishu. These same troops are those who took Afgoye and protected the president from this most recent attack. African Union forces are stationed in the capital city of Mogadishu, Ethiopian soldiers are in the south and west of the country, and Kenyan and AU soldiers also patrol the south of the nation.

There has been a presence of at least 12,000 Kenyan soldiers in the south of Somalia since October 2011. Al-Shabab has promised to exact revenge against Kenya for its presence in its country. Some believe that the group is responsible for the bombing at a busy shopping complex in Nairobi, Kenya on May 28 that injured 33 people. The Prime Minister of Kenya called this attack a “heinous act of terrorism.” Additionally, Kenya blames al-Shabab for several kidnappings and for the destabilizing of its border region.

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The Committee to Protect Journalists condemns last week’s arrest and brutal assault of Mohamed Abdirahman, a journalist in the semi-autonomous republic of Somaliland.

Police arrested Abdirahman, a reporter for the local news site Subulahanews, on the morning of February 21 in the northwestern town of Borama, and accused him of publishing a false story that claimed Ethiopian separatists with the Ogaden National Liberation Front had settled in the northwestern town of Lughaya, local journalists said.

While in custody, Abdirahman was beaten by four police officers with sticks and the butt of a gun until he lost consciousness, local journalists and news reports said. Police took the journalist to Borama Hospital, where he was treated in the intensive care unit for his internal injuries, according to local journalists and news reports. He was moved to Hargeisa Hospital February 28, so he could receive more advanced treatment, local journalists said.

“This vicious attack against Mohamed Abdirahman is the latest example of the severely deteriorating press freedom climate in Somaliland,” said CPJ East Africa Consultant Tom Rhodes. “Authorities must ensure a thorough and independent investigation into this crime, and ensure that those responsible are brought to justice.”

Faisal Ali Sheekh Mohamed, the director general of the Information Ministry, told CPJ he was not aware of Abdirahman’s case but would investigate the matter.

On February 19, two reporters for the weekly Ogaal were arrested for publishing a similar report on the ONLF. One of the journalists, Mohamed Abdi, told CPJ they were arrested on the orders of the interior minister and were taken to the Central Investigation Department in the capital, Hargeisa. Both journalists were released on Sunday, local journalists said.

Somaliland authorities have repeatedly arrested and arbitrarily detained independent journalists for reporting on cases of disputed regions in the semi-autonomous republic. Authorities arrested at least 28 independent journalists without charge in January, according to CPJ research.

Image Courtesy of   http://www.fesoj.org

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