German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with the English Prime Minister David Cameron to discuss the Eurozone crisis. Both leaders support a two-speed approach to the future of Europe.

Several leaders outside of the Eurozone, such as U.S. President Barack Obama, have urged Germany and the other participating nations to take immediate action on the crisis. Cameron stated, “I’m very clear that urgent action is needed to deal with the market uncertainty… [it] is about building firewalls and recapitalizing the banks.” Although Cameron has urged the Eurozone to solve this crisis, he has made it quite clear that he expects them to solve their own problems.

The United Kingdom and Denmark, although members of the European Union, negotiated agreements in 1992 to be excluded from the euro. Both countries wanted to maintain their own currency, which now appears to have been the best course of action.

Merkel has already admitted that the Eurozone crisis has been building over the last ten years and will not be solved in a day. Merkel stated, “now it will also take a few years to get things right again.”

Many economic experts have claimed that the Eurozone structure is faulty because seventeen nations are connected through a currency but are not coordinated with their budget plans. This lack of budget coordination is not a problem until a crisis such as the 2008 recession arises; now the weaker economies are dragging down the whole system. Merkel agrees that something must be done to integrate these nations better. “We need more Europe, we need not only a monetary union, but we also need a so-called fiscal union, in other words more joint budget policy,” she said.

European Union officials in Brussels want Germany, the strongest economy in the Union, to accept jointly guaranteed European debt and allow the European Central Bank to issue eurobonds. These eurobonds would help to regain some of the debt for the other countries as well as Germany, but Merkel worries that issuing these eurobonds would harm the German people and the German economy more. Before any kind of fiscal union is created in Europe, Merkel is insistent that there needs to be more stability from other European Union countries. Some experts claim that the integration cannot wait.

Another suggestion from the European Commission and European Central Bank is the creation of a central banking authority that would help alleviate concerns of excessive debt. Currently, Spain’s finance minister has claimed that credit markets are “effectively shut” to Spain at this time, making it impossible for them to get the billions in euros to rescue their banks. As of 6 June 2012, the European Commission has announced a plan for a “bank union” in Europe that would make it easier for countries like Spain to get credit.

Although many worry that Spain will need a bailout, Spain insists that they will not. Merkel has stated that Germany will not pressure Spain to take a bailout although the funds will be there if they are necessary.

The European Central Bank cannot provide bailouts due to the ‘no bailout’ clause of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. However, starting in July there will be a 500 billion euro rescue fund known as the European Stability Mechanism.

Merkel has insisted on austerity measures in bailout countries such as Greece, but these measures have been met with great opposition. Many claim that what governments should be focusing on is growth. Merkel claims, “budget consolidation [aka austerity measures] and growth are two sides of one and the same coin.”

Currently a budget-discipline agreement is being discussed across Europe and has already been ratified in some countries. The Irish referendum vote in the previous week affirmed the agreement. Merkel’s coalition government in the German Parliament is working to get the two-thirds majority necessary to approve the agreement. However, the opposition party – which believes the debt crisis can only be solved by spending for growth – has also requested a financial transaction tax be added to the agreement or at least followed by Germany.

The United Kingdom, with London being the biggest financial center in Europe, is opposed to a Europe-wide financial transaction tax. Cameron stated that the tax would “simply [draw] those transactions offshore and to other places.”

On 7 June 2012 Merkel stated, “we need a political union first and foremost… step by step we must from now on give up more competences to Europe, and allow Europe more powers of control.” Although Cameron agrees that the Eurozone must become more integrated financially, his country is not a member of the Eurozone and would not have to deal with the consequences.

After meeting with Cameron, Merkel announced that she is tolerant of a ‘two-speed’ Europe, meaning that while the current Eurozone countries become more integrated fiscally and politically, other countries such as Denmark and the United Kingdom that use their own currency would still be a part of the Union but relegated to the edges. Merkel claims, “we have to be open. We always have to make it possible for everyone [to join]… but we must not stop because one or the other don’t want to come along just yet.”

Merkel says that one of the greatest aids for the European Union countries is to become more competitive. She claims that the economies will improve when they begin producing more on the global market.

An EU summit is planned for later in June and the leaders will discuss plans for a political union. However, according to Merkel, the decision and the arrangements will not be completed in one summit and more meetings will have to be planned.

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The European Central Bank cut its economic growth forecast for the Euro zone amid rising fear for the economic health of the continent. This move is a downward revision of earlier forecast by ECB. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said at a press conference that “there is a risk that growth will slow to near standstill nest year.”

The downward spiral of the European economy has been so powerful that it has casted clouds over the future prospect of whole Euro zone. A crisis of sovereign debt might develop unprecedented fissure in the union which perhaps may lead Greece to exit the EU. Furthermore there has been growing concerns over the future of the Euro as currency.

On the possibility of the Euro zone sinking back into recession, Trichet said “it is difficult to make forecasts in the current situation.”An unfortunate economic situation in Europe is emerging from fiscal disintegration among nations in the Euro zone, coupled with an overall fragile economy. Even so, authorities could have averted the debt dilemma if the economy would have been functioning well.

The confidence in the 17-nation currency area was further dented when Italy was forced to pay the highest interest rates since joining the EU. “I think there is a possibility, if wrong steps are taken, that the system goes off the rails” said Sergio Marchionne, CEO of Italian car maker FIAT. Markets have already taken interest rates on Italian bonds to much higher levels indicating the risks involved in the vehicle.

Yields on bonds are determined according to market sentiment — if investors feel very edgy and uncertain, interest rates may soar and vice versa, leading to a breeding burden on governments. Five year bond yield hit a Euro lifetime high of 5.60 percent recently. Domenico Lombardi, president of the Oxford institute of Economic Policy said “European policy makers must act fast to ward off a full-blown market attack on Italy.”

On the other hand, Moody’s rating agency downgraded two top French banks over fear of their exposure to Greek sovereign debt. Moody’s cut the rating of Credit Agricole bank, one of biggest of Europe from Aa1 to Aa2 and also downgraded the rating of Societe Generale from Aa2 to Aa3.

Banking industry in the Euro zone is in the circle of gloom for being exposed to various potentially unsafe securities of government bonds. The institute of international finance told that prolonged inability to deal with Europe’s debt issues put its banking system at severe risk.

In his description of the magnitude of severity of economic uncertainty, European commission head Jose Manuel Barroso said “the most serious challenge of a generation. This is a fight… for the economic and political future of Europe.” It all depends on how the financially big countries of Europe behave in a bid to rescue the area — how well they hear the brawl of economically beleaguered nations by designing a suitable rescue package that optimally saves the EU from disintegration in the future.

What is needed is a temporary bail-out and stringent fiscal integration among nations in the future in order to ward-off economic demons.

Image Courtesy of  http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/

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Soon after the so-called end of the depression period in the global economy, at a time when the global economy started a weak recovery, a more complex economic phenomenon emerged as the next bellwether to world economy.

Since 2009, the European economy has been struggling with slow economic growth rate and indomitable debt crisis that led to political disturbance in some countries of Europe. The crisis has dragged these economics back in to recession.

Years of heavy, unprecedented government spending in Greece and other countries of the Euro zone, led governments to go beyond available budgetary resources, and rely solely on borrowing to finance expenditures. This produced a series of risks to these economies and financial systems as a whole.

Leading economists warned that European debt crisis could spread across the continent in a major blow to the single currency system; further, the International Monetary Fund said turmoil in Greece, Ireland and Portugal may engulf the wider Euro zone despite billions of Euros already spent in emergency aid so far.

In an attempt to reduce dangerously rising levels of debt and forced and deep painful cuts in public expenditure — less government spending — drove up unemployment and put several nations back into recession. Many economists around the world claim that such immediate spending cuts are self-defeating in nature.

After much struggle in 2010 the EU and IMF combined to offer Greece a bailout package of 110 Billion Euros, followed by a broader contingency fund of 500 billion Euros. But the new loans came with the effect of austerity measures that apparently demanded a ceiling on public expenditure leading to widespread protests and political uncertainty in Ireland and Portugal.

Recently, the prime minister of Portugal said the government decided to ask the European Commission for financial help. According to economists, Portugal needs financial aid to the size of 80 Billion Euros.

After Greece and Ireland, Portugal became the third financially troubled country in the Euro zone to request financial assistance from Europe’s Bailout Fund and the IMF.

The era of financial trauma in the Euro zone began in December 2009, after newly elected Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou announced that his predecessors had hidden the actual size of the massive budget deficit. In a bid to regain the lost confidence in the region, the IMF urged European leaders to fix the banking problems and slash national deficits that have undoubtly led to stringent austerity measures.

Economists also say that strong policy responses so far that led to the weakening of Greek, Irish and Portuguese economies have contained the fear to some degree. However, markets are uncertain about the Greece capacity to pay back its debt of 285 million pounds, or $463.95.

As of now, Greece has more than 300 billion Euros of debt constituting to a sum of 140 percent of its total GDP. Recently, the EU and IMF Agreed to a 110 billion Euro bailout. According to Jose Manuel of the European Central Bank, a default would have extreme adverse consequences for the Greek economy.

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