The lower house of the Russian parliament passed a controversial anti-protesting bill Tuesday, June 5th, with a final vote of 241 to 147. The bill will raise unsanctioned public gathering fines 150-fold, from 2,000 rubles to 300,000 rubles ($9000) for citizens and from 5,000 rubles ($1500) to 600,000 rubles ($18000) for government officials. These fine punishments are harsher than even the ones citizens can receive for the storage of nuclear materials in Russia.

Some protesters have attempted to avoid protesting fines in the past by not bringing signs, and instead silently marching in mass numbers. However, the bill also accounts for this possibility and includes punishments for these kinds of protests. Many worry that this bill violates the constitutional right to assembly.

The bill was edited after criticism that it was far too restrictive. Parts of the bill that were even more controversial were removed, including fines for individuals who spread the word about protests and rallies on the internet.

The bill was created after massive protests of more than one hundred thousand people protested opposing Putin’s 12-year rule. Putin’s United Russia party holds the majority in the upper and lower houses of the Russian parliament, and although opposition parties did their best to halt the bill with a slew of amendments, the United Russian party voted down all of them. Putin claims the bill is necessary for the Russian people and claimed, “we must shield our people from radical action.”

Members of the opposition are unsatisfied with this explanation. Sergei Mironov, the leader of Fair Russia opposition faction, claimed the bill will “spit in the face of the Russian people… this odious bill is an attempt to scare the people and shut their mouth.” Another member of the Fair Russia party, Gennady Gudkov warned, “in the past, tightening the screws in Russia has only caused bloodshed. This is a sure path to a civil war.” A member of the Communist Party, Anatoly Lokot argued, “instead of a dialogue you are offering a big stick.”

Even groups who normally support the Kremlin and vote with United Russia were unhappy. The Liberal-Democratic party voted against the bill and also tried to delay it with amendments.

The bill has ignited even more protests outside the State Duma building in recent days. At least twenty opposition activists, including the leader of the liberal Yabloko party, were detained on the Tuesday the bill was passed in the lower house.

Some young professionals who have regularly attended the protests have lost their jobs. One protester, Alisa Obraztsova, a 24-year-old lawyer, stated, “they thought they would discourage the protests by arresting people like me, who had never before been detained, but they only poured fuel on the fire.”

The bill passed in the upper house on Wednesday, June 6th, with only one voting against the bill and one abstaining. Now only Putin’s signature is necessary to sign it into law. The government wants the bill to be signed before a planned anti-government rally the week of June 11th.

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Dmitro Dzhangirov, a Russia and East Europe expert, in a recent article has stated that further bilateral relations between Russia and the Ukraine will benefit from Vladimir Putin’s 12 years of experience. Mr Putin is expected to return to the Presidency later this week following the election on March 4.

Dzhangirov said: “From point of view of the Ukrainian elite Vladimir Putin is a difficult and hard person and thus an unpleasant negotiator. What is considered to be “pragmatism” in Moscow is often perceived as “dictatorship” in Kiev. Strictly speaking, the style of Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian policy can be described as “pragmatism of the strong towards the weak”, but that’s no help for the Ukrainian leadership.

“However, if you remember the last years of Leonid Kuchma’s presidency, within the “multi-vector” framework he was able to have a dialogue with his Russian counterpart on almost equal terms. And the current problems are consequences of mistakes and miscalculations in 2005-2009. Today Vladimir Putin meets on the Bankova Street a person who does not allow Kiev fix easily mistakes and miscalculations of the previous and disloyal to the Kremlin power.

“On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin’s return is expected with fear, the hypothetical variant of the revolutionary “Arabic-like” chaos causes well-founded fear. For the West such fear is caused, first of all, by the presence of second nuclear power in Russia. For Ukraine interruptions in delivery of energy sources and a sharp decline of exports in the east direction may become a real disaster.

“However, the apocalyptic scenario of the immediate future is rather a warning to most fervent “democrats” than a real prediction. But apart from the “stability or chaos” alternative given by the vote on March 4, the question “What is the real alternative to Vladimir Putin in Russia’s Ukrainian policy?” seems quite correct.

“Let’s start with the fact that only “parties of power” tried to build inter-party contacts with colleagues, except for the Ukrainian and the Russian communists, at the moment they are Party of Regions and United Russia. The Ukrainian National-Democratic parties, traditionally citing Lenin’s phrase that “the Russian democracy ends when it comes to the Ukrainian question”, did not even try to find partners in Russia.

The exception was Reforms and Order Party that had more or less regular contacts and even documents signed with the Russian party Union of Right Forces.

“After the “Orange Revolution” the URF party leader Boris Nemtsov was a temporary advisor to the Ukrainian President, but his active participation in the confrontation Viktor Yushchenko – Yulia Tymoshenko had nothing to do with strengthening Russian-Ukrainian inter-party relations.

One can also remember a very short “flirt” between the block of Ukrainian socialists and Motherland block in 2005, which also didn’t get further development. ”In this connection a reasonable question appears. What kind of relationship are the relative “Ukrainian democrats” looking for with hypothetical “non-Putin Russia”?

“The relationship can’t be built from scratch – the Russians have the January 2009 “gas contract” and the April 2010 “Kharkov agreements”. There is also Gazprom’s system of treaties and agreements with European partners both on the gas supply and the construction of gas pipelines.

“And all these are trumps in the hands of the President of Russia, regardless of his name and political views. Could another president of the Russian Federation take a softer position towards Kiev? Yes, he can but only after he at full scale performs all techniques of hard negotiating, starting with the simplest formula of international relations: “Pacta sunt servanda” (“agreements must be kept”).

“The fact is that for any “non Putin” the mentioned documents are a starting point for a dialogue, while for Vladimir Putin they are an intermediate result of a long 12-year negotiating process with all its uneasy and obscure moments and nuances.

“As for the potential of Ukrainian-Russian relations, it is best characterized by the following public inquiry. 64% of Russians have a “very good” and “mostly good” attitude towards Ukraine (Levada Center, the end of January 2012), and this factor should be taken into account by any Russian president.”

Dmitro Dzhangirov is a journalist and Russia – East Europe expert

Source: Russia Insights www.russia-insights.com

Image Courtesy of   Mark III Photonics / Shutterstock.com

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A recent poll by the Russian Public Opinion Research Centre shows that despite protests ahead of the Russian presidential elections in March, Putin retains overwhelming popularity amongst the voters.

According to the quantitative study released in January, 52 percent of those polled claim that they would vote for Vladimir Putin if the elections were held tomorrow, with Ziuganov and Zhirinovsky lagging behind with the support of 11 percent and 9 percent of potential voters respectively.

Only 16 percent say that they would under no circumstance vote for Putin, and Putin is also rated as the most trustworthy of all Russian politicians, with his closest rival being the incumbent President Dimitry Medvedev.

It was also found that among those involved in the December protests, a fifth are as yet unsure of who they will vote for in the upcoming elections, whilst Yavlinsky and Prokhorov were each the preferred candidate for 17 percent of the protesters.

Valery Fedorov, the general director of VTsIOM, commented: “It is clear that there is no obvious alternative to Putin, even for those vehemently opposing his candidacy for President. The opposition is extremely heterogeneous and has little shared vision for the country’s future. This is reflected in the confusion of the Russian public.”

It was further found that the protestors felt secure about their financial well-being. A third regarded their standard of living as good or very good, and only 9 percent were dissatisfied with their current economic well-being. This echoes the general sentiment among the Russian population. Fedorov adds: “With the Russian economy registering year-on-year growth, Russia is weathering the financial crisis far better than its neighbors in Europe.

“The results show that despite the crisis in the Eurozone, 58 percent of Russians say they believe that their standard of living will improve in 2012. At the advent of the financial crisis in 2009, only 48 percent of Russians were optimistic about their future. The ten percent rise in optimism can be accredited to the stability of the Russian economy.”

The Presidential elections will be held on March 4, only a few months after the results of the general elections brought thousands of protesters onto the streets of Moscow. The protesters questioned the margin by which the ruling United Russia party won the elections and claimed that election rigging had taken place. United Russia continues to hold a majority in the State Duma.

Image Courtesy of  magicinfoto / Shutterstock.com

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