Geopolitical chaos procreating a chaotic leaderless world is sucking the literal life out of human hope. The tentacles of austerity measures and quantitative easing are the primary catalyst of all the madness. One way or another every government financier around the world is determined to cultivate the appearance that the good times are still rolling. The only problem is that the natural rate of failure refuses to participate in the economic facade. Fiat currencies’ purchasing power dwindles, the pounding drum beat of war beckons, and an open ended hegemonic polarity struggle for commodities ensues.

While serving as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in 2002, current U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the world a glimpse into the past, present, and future all at once. In his speech, entitled “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn’t Happen Here,” Ben Bernanke stated:

“Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation.”

Today the infamous 40 percent strikes again, as Cyprus agreed to the terms of a European Union bailout in which banks will seize 40 percent of uninsured bank depositors’ wealth.

Moody’s Investors Service was quoted in Bloomberg as saying, “The seizure of larger deposits may spark tensions with Russia, the source of an estimated $31 billion in holdings in Cypriot banks.”

Proxy wars have gone beyond the spectrum of arming rogue militants and allied nations in dispersed pockets of the globe, graduating to the realm of state sponsored economic terrorism. As “Gerald Celente” consistently and aptly states, “Currency wars + Trade Wars = Real Wars.”

All of the economic wheeling and dealing continues on as the “Arab Spring” explodes into a caballing year round inferno engulfing the entire Middle East. Daily at the United Nations, permanent Security Council members China, Russia, France, United Kingdom, and the United States spar over regional influence with each passing veto and resolution.

This is most apparent in Syria where Russia opposes any intervention as it struggles to prop up the government of its last remaining ally in the Mediterranean region. Russian naval forces stationed at Tartus, Syria may be the last line of repellent preventing NATO intervention.

The lines of frienemy engagement get blurrier with every passing engagement.

Simultaneously as the United States prepares to implement its own austerity measure policy that has carefully been repackaged and marketed to the public under the label sequestration, it is arming rebels in Syria. All claims of being in financial dire straits gets immediately lost within the noise of controlling key choke points around the globe.

One cannot forget less than two years after watching the Al Qaeda flag being proudly raised in the Libyan city of Benghazi, that America’s new found ally the Free Syrian Army are the protégés of Al Qaeda.

The life cycle of keyboards do not possess the durability to correctly and fully analyze threats posed by the uncontrollable Kim Jong Un ruled North Korea. The isolated peninsula nation even managed to startle its longtime ally China into voting in favor of U.N. Security Council resolution 2094. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang was quoted as saying;

“China supports the UN Security Council’s necessary and moderate response to the nuclear test of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).”

Barely beyond two weeks later newly appointed Chinese President Xi Jinping, warned the West not to meddle in Syria’s civil war while on his first visit to Russia.

Not even the mythical country of Chimerica can rescue the too big to fail world from the natural rate of failure. Governments around the world are taking sides now under the cloak of every global economic and geopolitical conflict, because nations know that a hegemonic storm is coming with no evacuation routes or shelter in sight. Once more, honesty of time is proving that which cannot last forever won’t.

Image courtesy: European Parliament

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The year 2012 is already behind us, but for many, some events will leave lasting imprints – both in the positive and negative ways. So what happened in 2012?

The world is not ending at least for now and let the new 2013 be full of more happiness, joy, and good news.

Image Courtesy : KOREA.NET – Official page of the Republic of Korea

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Since Russia’s President Putin’s return to power, rock music in Russia has faced somewhat of an ordeal. As Moscow pronounced the punk rock band Pussy Riot guilty of hosting a political protest in an Orthodox cathedral, attracting international condemnation, it is reported that fans of Viktor Tsoi, leader of Russia’s legendary rock band Kino, are under police surveillance.

Tsoi was born on June 21, 1962 in Saint Petersburg by a Korean-Russian father and a Russian mother. He studied at Serov Artistic Academy in Leningrad from 1974 to 1977, but was kicked out for writing and performing anti-national songs. He formed the rock group Kino under the Soviet Communism. Tsoi quickly became popular among young Russians who were craving change in the Soviet Union.

Tsoi, who died in 1990, has been considered a symbol of freedom and resistance for Russian people. His 50th birthday was marked this year. Pictures of Tsoi can still be spotted in the downtown of Moscow and Saint Petersburg and many commemorative events have been held by his fans in these cities.

Since Tsoi is a singer beloved by many Russian people, his fans have called on the Russian government to name a street after him. However, instead of considering the idea, the police authority of Saint Petersburg officially announced last July that they are monitoring the fans of Kino in order to control extremist activities.

In Russia, once police authorities decide to monitor someone, they can exercise governmental power in the name of maintaining public order. For instance, the police authority of Saint Petersburg made a raid of a rock concert held at club ArcticA, which is best-known for heavy rock and folk gigs, where they detaining about 400 people for couple of hours and took their fingerprints and pictures. So-called ‘extremism prevention law,’ signed by Putin in 2006, is the foundation for this measure: signs of opposition towards Putin or other human rights activism is monitored, causing controversy among Russian citizens.

The actions of Saint Petersburg’s police authority prompts concerns about the possible infringing of human rights, and there are some people who believe Russia is changing itself to the days of the Soviet Union, when a repressive dictatorship dominated the whole country.

For example, a noted Russian scholar who asked not to be named said “It seems that the Russian government is trying to monitor fans of KINO as a warning to others. However, it shouldn’t have made a big deal out of it. It is causing harsh controversy as you witnessed rather having Russian people over.”

Tsoi died in 1990 in a car accident. However, since most of his songs were talking about freedom and resistance against the Soviet Union, there was a rumor that Tsoi was assassinated by the communist or secret government agency. Even though about 20 years past, he remains one of the idols for many Russian people.

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The conflict in Syria rages on as the Battle of Aleppo enters its third week on August 2. Since March of 2011, when the first anti-government protests began in Syria, around 200,000 have been made refugees and around 20,000 people have been killed.

Aleppo, a commercial hub in Syria and the city with the largest population, is one of the most active combat locations in Syria. It is a key location since the winning of Aleppo for the rebels could mean the end of the Assad regime. BBC’s Jim Muir wrote, “The longer the situation remains unresolved, the stronger the rebels’ grip may become, as they pursue their goal of establishing a ‘liberated area’ in Aleppo and neighboring Idlib province to use as a springboard against the regime’s last stronghold, Damascus.”

Many rebels have taken hold of several districts within the city of Aleppo and Assad has sent tanks, helicopter gunships, and war planes to attack it.

On August 2 the rebel Tawheed Brigade left Tal Rifaat to give aid to the rebels in Aleppo. Also early in the morning of August 2 the rebels attacked Menagh army base with a stolen tank. Menagh is from where Assad has been launching several of his artillery and air strike attacks on Aleppo. The rebels pulled out after a short time with one rebel fighter claiming, “We hit the airport using a tank that we captured from the Assad army. We attacked the airport a few times but we have decided to retreat at this time.” However, several reports claim that the retreat may have been due to the war planes that attacked the rebels.

In Aleppo, rebels put a video online that showed them executing several prisoners; the act is being called a war crime by several organizations. The rebels also claim to have taken three police stations within the city in the last week. Also last month, Assad’s forces managed to drive most of the rebels out of Damascus and began to push an offensive on Aleppo.

Tensions between the two sides have also risen from the government activity in Damascus and the rebel activity in Aleppo. Assad, who has been in power since the death of his father in 2001, launched two attacks in Damascus on Thursday in which soldiers went door to door asking people to show their papers. The London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) claimed “the bodies of 43 people were recovered. Some of them had been summarily executed.”

In the last month Assad’s top four advisers, including his own brother-in-law, were killed in a bombing. Since then, Assad has been in hiding and has only issued pre-recorded statements.

On Wednesday, August 1 the mobile phone connections were cut for the city of Aleppo leading many to believe that the government would launch an attack. In fact, on Thursday the government forces attacked the Salaheddine district in Aleppo, although most were repelled by the rebels.

The problems worsen even further for the citizens of Aleppo since the city is beginning to run out of food. The World Food Program issued a statement claiming, “The humanitarian situation is deteriorating in Aleppo and food needs are growing rapidly.”

The world’s response

Many believe that outside governments should be helping the rebels although since Russia and China are in favor of keeping Assad in power, there has been little consensus. The Security Council has created three separate resolutions that have been vetoed by Russia and China as too extreme because it would cause a regime change led by an outside power, violating sovereignty.

The UN General Assembly will be voting on a resolution written by Saudi Arabia shortly that would support the Syrian rebels.

President Obama called Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday, July 30 to “coordinate efforts to accelerate a political transition in Syria.” Although Obama will not send direct military assistance, he does seem to want to support the rebels. The Treasury Department has recently decided that it will give a license to the Syrian Support Group that will aid the rebels financially.

Jordan, a bordering country to Syria, has been helping Syrian refugees enter their country. However, in recent days Syrian soldiers shot at Jordanian troops that were helping the refugees to cross the border.

On August 2, the UN-Arab League joint special peace envoy to Syria, Kofi Annan, has announced that he will not renew his contract when it ends in August, effectively quitting his job. He claims that the Syrian people “desperately need action” but he believes that the UN Security Council is “finger pointing and name calling.”

Annan is the author of the six point peace plan that was introduced a few months ago. It called for an end to all military conflict, peaceful political negotiations, and more freedom of expression for the Syrian people. Unfortunately, neither the rebels nor the Syrian government upheld all sides of the plan and the situation quickly deteriorated.

Annan has blamed both sides in the Syrian conflict for the lack of peace but has also said that the problems were “compounded by the disunity of the international community.” He went on to state, “Syria can still be saved from the worst calamity – if the international community can show the courage and leadership necessary to compromise on their partial interests for the sake of the Syrian people – for the men, women, and children who have already suffered far too much.”

Currently it is unknown who will fill Annan’s position at the end of August, but most assuredly few are willing to take it.

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Two wars are being waged in Syria. There is the physical fighting going on between the rebels and government troops but there is also a media war going on in which the results of the physical battles are being hidden or changed to misrepresent facts. One young activist, Yahya Abdulrahman, a physics student at Aleppo University claimed, “The regime is fighting the people in two ways. One is with the army. The other is with the media. There are parts of the Free Syrian Army that are fighting the regime. But there are other parts fighting the regime’s hackers.””

Smart phones have been key in the Syrian uprising – just like in the Arab Spring revolutions – because, according to the Christian Science Monitor, it is a way for the people to undermine the state media (which is controlled by Assad) and get supporters within Syria and in the rest of the world. So far the Syrian government has banned access to YouTube and Facebook, but several of the youth have found ways around these government firewalls.

Having smart phones and access to computers and internet allow the rebels to communicate with friends and family as well as talk to soldiers who want to defect to the rebel army.

Many Syrian rebels have risked their lives while fighting the media war. According to the Guardian hundreds of video activists have joined the revolution through videography; most are male, young, and technologically capable individuals. Abdulrahman, one of these activists, admits that filming is just as dangerous as fighting with a gun: “If the army sees anyone with a camera they try and kill him first.”

However, the video aspect of the revolution is just as important as the actual physical fighting. Assad controls Syria’s television stations which claim that the Free Syrian Army (the rebels) is a group of “terrorists” and “al-Qaida” while also broadcasting pro-regime propaganda. Abu Mhio, a rebel media activist claims, “When we will be free, [Syrian TV] will be dead.”

If Assad controls all of the media in the country he can prevent the successes of the rebels from being reported which lowers their support and prevents more people from getting involved. In order to ensure that the world and the Syrian people actually know what is going on in Syria they must record it for themselves, even if it is emotionally tolling and life-threatening.

Abdulrahman was arrested once for video-recording a protest on his campus. After being beaten and made to sign a piece of paper claiming he was an informant, he was released and continued filming for the rebels. He has also filmed the dead in the streets to show the toll of the fighting. “I filmed one of the children killed last week. We hadn’t eaten all day because of Ramadan. But afterwards I couldn’t touch any food.”

In previous years rebels have not had such technological access to aid them in their cause. Hafez al-Assad, the current ruler’s father, ruled Syria from 1970 and was responsible for destroying the Muslim Brotherhood uprising in the city of Hama in 1982, killing at least 10,000 people. One rebel fighter explained to the Christian Science Monitor, “His father destroyed Hama in a few days, but there was no TV there and no internet to show the world. But today we have the internet, we photograph and film and have Al Jazeera, so people know. They can see what is happening.”

Few journalists have been allowed within Syria in the recent months of fighting, but those that have, have received threats. One Guardian journalist received a death threat via a tweet from a member of the regime stating, “I pray every night that you die.”

Those journalists that are allowed in the country are also not provided a lot of access. Another journalist, Alex Thomson, tweeted “Syrian government is losing the PR war” when they refused to let him interview or record the Syrian military.

Ultimately, winning the media war will be just as important as winning the physical war for both sides. The rebels have succeeded in many ways but they must take Aleppo in order to really start making changes. According to Burhan Ghalioun, a member of the Syrian National Council currently in Paris, if the rebels take Aleppo “there will be nothing more that will stand in the way of the Free Syrain Army. Hama, Homs, to the outskirts of Damascus have in large part been liberated.”

Image Courtesy of  Omar Chatriwala

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Several houses and apartments of suspected protest leaders were searched by Russian authorities on 11 June 2012. The searches came shortly after Putin and his party pushed an anti-protesting law through the Duma that increases the protesting fines 150 fold.

The apartments that were searched were those of Alexei Navalny, Sergei Udaltsov, Ilya Yashin, and Ksenia Sobchak; the homes of Udaltsov’s parents and Navalny’s parernts and in-laws were also searched. Sobchak is a Russian television personality whose father was also a mentor of Putin’s. The Russian police have also noted that they plan to search former political activist Bori Nemtsov as well.

The searches lasted for as long as twelve hours and the investigators seized cell phones, computers, and tablets.

Udaltsov claims, “the authorities are in a panic…they are trying to conduct primitive, repressive actions, but I am sure they’ll only achieve the opposite effect. These sorts of searches annoy and outrage people, and people in even greater numbers take to the streets.”

US State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said the United States is “deeply concerned by the apparent harassment of Russian political opposition figures on the eve of the planned demonstrations on June 12.”

After the search the protest leaders were called in for questioning on Tuesday, 12 June 2012 at 11 AM, one hour before protests began in Pushkin Square. Many worried that if the protest leaders were not released in time for the protest, a clash between police and protesters would ensue. The protest was planned and approved by authorities for 12 June which is the national holiday, Russia Day, celebrating the day in 1990 when Russian lawmakers declared independence from the Soviet Union and gave power to Russian authorities over the Soviets.

Udaltsov ignored his summons to be questioned and led the protesters in chanting “Russia will be free.” The protests saw around 65,000 people, much greater than the original 18,000 estimated by the Russian authorities, meaning the police presence was small in comparison. Most of the protesters are white collar professionals who want more say in politics and to avoid economic stagnation according to Gulf News.

Some of the protesters explained that they were not worried about the new anti-protesting law that was passed the previous Friday after Putin signed it into law. One woman, Nina Lobachyova, 73, stated, “I am not afraid I will be fined. I am not going to fight or scream, why would they fine me? And if they do, I won’t pay, I’ll go to jail and be considered a political prisoner.”

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The lower house of the Russian parliament passed a controversial anti-protesting bill Tuesday, June 5th, with a final vote of 241 to 147. The bill will raise unsanctioned public gathering fines 150-fold, from 2,000 rubles to 300,000 rubles ($9000) for citizens and from 5,000 rubles ($1500) to 600,000 rubles ($18000) for government officials. These fine punishments are harsher than even the ones citizens can receive for the storage of nuclear materials in Russia.

Some protesters have attempted to avoid protesting fines in the past by not bringing signs, and instead silently marching in mass numbers. However, the bill also accounts for this possibility and includes punishments for these kinds of protests. Many worry that this bill violates the constitutional right to assembly.

The bill was edited after criticism that it was far too restrictive. Parts of the bill that were even more controversial were removed, including fines for individuals who spread the word about protests and rallies on the internet.

The bill was created after massive protests of more than one hundred thousand people protested opposing Putin’s 12-year rule. Putin’s United Russia party holds the majority in the upper and lower houses of the Russian parliament, and although opposition parties did their best to halt the bill with a slew of amendments, the United Russian party voted down all of them. Putin claims the bill is necessary for the Russian people and claimed, “we must shield our people from radical action.”

Members of the opposition are unsatisfied with this explanation. Sergei Mironov, the leader of Fair Russia opposition faction, claimed the bill will “spit in the face of the Russian people… this odious bill is an attempt to scare the people and shut their mouth.” Another member of the Fair Russia party, Gennady Gudkov warned, “in the past, tightening the screws in Russia has only caused bloodshed. This is a sure path to a civil war.” A member of the Communist Party, Anatoly Lokot argued, “instead of a dialogue you are offering a big stick.”

Even groups who normally support the Kremlin and vote with United Russia were unhappy. The Liberal-Democratic party voted against the bill and also tried to delay it with amendments.

The bill has ignited even more protests outside the State Duma building in recent days. At least twenty opposition activists, including the leader of the liberal Yabloko party, were detained on the Tuesday the bill was passed in the lower house.

Some young professionals who have regularly attended the protests have lost their jobs. One protester, Alisa Obraztsova, a 24-year-old lawyer, stated, “they thought they would discourage the protests by arresting people like me, who had never before been detained, but they only poured fuel on the fire.”

The bill passed in the upper house on Wednesday, June 6th, with only one voting against the bill and one abstaining. Now only Putin’s signature is necessary to sign it into law. The government wants the bill to be signed before a planned anti-government rally the week of June 11th.

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Vladimir Putin has done it again; Putin received over 63% of the votes for presidency in Russia this past Sunday leaving several mad, dazed and confused. While it seemed certain that Putin was going to win, many are questioning his future plans for Russia, and his relationships with the rest of the world.

After tens of thousands of Russians rioted against Putin in Moscow on Monday evening, many are questioning if his re-election into office was “rigged.” Opposition activist Garry Kasprov believes that there was “massive fraud” surrounding the election by claiming the polls had been packed with additional voters.

And Putin is even admitting that their might have been some sort of violation of the electoral law. On Wednesday, Putin spoke out about any potential violations by stating that, “it’s possible there were some irregularities; there probably were some.” Putin believes that these irregularities could have only influenced up to 1% of the total vote while opposition supporters believe that his victory was inflated by over 10% of votes.

Considering all of the allegations of electoral fraud, the U.S. State Department decided to ask for a “credible” investigation of the election. Additionally, the department chose not to congratulate Putin as cause for concern of Putin’s motives rises. The United States and Europe have concerns that Putin will try to intervene with their policies regarding threats of Israel’s military strike against Iran and the bloodshed from the uprising going on in Syria.

While Putin claims that he won’t dabble in any international interference with what’s going on in Syria, he claims that the U.S. would rather be “vassals” than allies. Putin is already criticizing the United States and Europe for their plans to place missile defense elements in Eastern Europe but claims that he is fully against any military strikes against Iran.

Former Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev sought to improve Russia’s relationship with the U.S. during his time as President from 2008 to 2012 and even signed an agreement with the United States regarding a nuclear arms reduction pact as well as working toward making Russia one of the countries part of the World Trade Organization, a goal the country had been working on for nearly two decades.

It seems that Putin has little intentions of further improving ties with the U.S. as he is already opposing a new United Nations resolution with Syria. Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov claims the reason for the opposition is because the resolution is a “slightly modified version” of what Russia was wanting.

Putin plans on spending over $700 billion dollars in the next decade in order to create a stronger military and upgrade the country’s weaponry. Considering that a single presidential term in Russia is only six years, it looks as though Putin is already looking toward re-election in 2018. The European Union relies on Russia for approximately one quarter of it’s natural gas, as Russia relies on the Western hemisphere for technological purposes to modernize Russia’s economy.

Tony Brenton, a former U.K. ambassador to Russia, put it bluntly as he stated, “like it or not, we have to do business with the Russian government, whoever is in power and however they got there.” Despite all the allegations of electoral fraud regarding Putin, that’s just what the U.S. might have to do.

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Vladimir Putin, former agent of the KGB (Committee for State Security) and candidate for a third presidential mandate, tries by all means to hide his personal life. In 1999, Putin took office as acting president of the Euro-Asian country after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin. He won the elections in 2000 and was re-elected four years later.

After the end of his second mandate in 2008, the prime minister of that time, Dmitry Medvedev, was elected his successor, and only a day after, Putin took the post of the new prime minister. Paradoxically, all the political power was in his hands again. This provoked the discontent of the Russian nation to some extent.

People are well-acquainted with Putin, but his personal life is a mystery, even for his compatriots. His wife, Lyudmila Putina, hardly ever attends official public events. Putin has been in power for more than ten years, but the Russian community does not know what his daughters look like. There are contradictory speculations about where they live. In 2010, there was a rumor that his youngest heir was to marry her boyfriend, son of a retired North Korean admiral. However, this news was denied by both sides.

Putin is almost never asked questions concerning his private life. For the Russian media, it is a subject of taboo. The reason may lie in the closure of a public newspaper in 2008, after they published an article that claimed Putin had left his wife and married a 24 year-old Olympic gymnast named Alina Kabaeva, who was a deputy and a member of his party at that time.

In the totalitarian past of Russia, it was easy for politicians to stop the spread of rumors, whether correct or incorrect. However, it becomes more tricky in todays digital age. Millions of blogs and web pages post stories about Putin and his family which are, in many cases, completely made up. Last year, one rumor stated that Putin spent his life in a monastery. Of course, the Russian Orthodox Church called these speculations “nonsense”, and the spokesman of the prime minister at that time declined to comment.

Pressed by the global media society and the scandalous gossip concerning himself, Putin revealed that his daughters lead an ordinary life. However, the the Russian nation wants to know where they are. Maybe in his next mandate, he will reveal this secret. In 2010, it was said that Putin and his wife were about to divorce, but they appeared on a talk show together. However, Lyudmila was not wearing her wedding ring. That made the newspapers much fiercer in their exaggeration about the marital drama of the Putins.

American and European journalists have the freedom to delve into the personal life of their political leaders, but in Russia, authorities are protected by the law. That is why Putin will always remain an enigma for the Russian nation and the world.

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This coming Sunday is the presidential election in Russia, and Vladimir Putin is sure he is going to win. But who is Vladimir Putin? And why is he so sure to pull a win? Despite allegations of Putin’s political party’s widespread official fraud, the latest surveys show that Putin will have the vote of approximately 60% of voters.

Putin as a Russian politician served as president of Russia from 2000 to 2008 and is currently the Prime Minister of Russia. He also has a background serving in the KGB for sixteen years. Based on a law change, Russia’s running presidential term has been increased from four to six years. The current President, Dmitry Medvedev, has decided not to run for re-election.

There is much controversy and protesting going on against Putin coming back into power as President. Putin has maintained a very strong criticism of the United States yet contradictorily has stated that, “President Barack Obama’s policies of ensuring ties with Russia,” will “successfully negotiate Russia’s access into the World Trade Organization.”

Regardless of the massive protests against Putin, he has clearly stated that he wants to help Russia regain social and economic stability.

However, Putin’s certainty in his unquestioned win is not necessarily a reflection of reality. In Moscow, thousands have been protesting against re-electing Putin. This has been the most populated show of outrage and anger since the Soviet Union collapsed, nearly twenty years ago. Despite the massive protests, he is staying confident that he will pull through and gain his victory and has clearly stated that he wants to help Russia regain social and economic stability.

If elected, Putin will be eligible to serve twelve more years as the President of Russia. Even though he has not been elected as President yet, Putin is already talking about running for re-election in 2018. If he wins both the 2012 and 2018 elections, he would have served almost a quarter of a century, which is longer than any other individual in Russia’s history other than Soviet dictator Josef Stalin.

As Putin gets closer to becoming the Russian President once more, the Syrian government is crumbling. President Obama disclosed a statement that Syrian’s President, Bashar al-Assad’s “days are numbered.” Meanwhile, Obama is working hard to speed up the process of Syria becoming a dictatorship. Russia is currently blocking UN action in helping this happen.

The biggest question in the current political climate revolve around the long-term impact of Russia with a Putin-led government. Both in terms of the American-Russian relations and the repercussions of political complications on Russia’s chances of becoming a part of the WTO.

The Russian Presidential Election will take place this Sunday, March 4. Stay tuned in to see if Putin will be the President of Russia for the newly extended term of six years.

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Dmitro Dzhangirov, a Russia and East Europe expert, in a recent article has stated that further bilateral relations between Russia and the Ukraine will benefit from Vladimir Putin’s 12 years of experience. Mr Putin is expected to return to the Presidency later this week following the election on March 4.

Dzhangirov said: “From point of view of the Ukrainian elite Vladimir Putin is a difficult and hard person and thus an unpleasant negotiator. What is considered to be “pragmatism” in Moscow is often perceived as “dictatorship” in Kiev. Strictly speaking, the style of Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian policy can be described as “pragmatism of the strong towards the weak”, but that’s no help for the Ukrainian leadership.

“However, if you remember the last years of Leonid Kuchma’s presidency, within the “multi-vector” framework he was able to have a dialogue with his Russian counterpart on almost equal terms. And the current problems are consequences of mistakes and miscalculations in 2005-2009. Today Vladimir Putin meets on the Bankova Street a person who does not allow Kiev fix easily mistakes and miscalculations of the previous and disloyal to the Kremlin power.

“On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin’s return is expected with fear, the hypothetical variant of the revolutionary “Arabic-like” chaos causes well-founded fear. For the West such fear is caused, first of all, by the presence of second nuclear power in Russia. For Ukraine interruptions in delivery of energy sources and a sharp decline of exports in the east direction may become a real disaster.

“However, the apocalyptic scenario of the immediate future is rather a warning to most fervent “democrats” than a real prediction. But apart from the “stability or chaos” alternative given by the vote on March 4, the question “What is the real alternative to Vladimir Putin in Russia’s Ukrainian policy?” seems quite correct.

“Let’s start with the fact that only “parties of power” tried to build inter-party contacts with colleagues, except for the Ukrainian and the Russian communists, at the moment they are Party of Regions and United Russia. The Ukrainian National-Democratic parties, traditionally citing Lenin’s phrase that “the Russian democracy ends when it comes to the Ukrainian question”, did not even try to find partners in Russia.

The exception was Reforms and Order Party that had more or less regular contacts and even documents signed with the Russian party Union of Right Forces.

“After the “Orange Revolution” the URF party leader Boris Nemtsov was a temporary advisor to the Ukrainian President, but his active participation in the confrontation Viktor Yushchenko – Yulia Tymoshenko had nothing to do with strengthening Russian-Ukrainian inter-party relations.

One can also remember a very short “flirt” between the block of Ukrainian socialists and Motherland block in 2005, which also didn’t get further development. ”In this connection a reasonable question appears. What kind of relationship are the relative “Ukrainian democrats” looking for with hypothetical “non-Putin Russia”?

“The relationship can’t be built from scratch – the Russians have the January 2009 “gas contract” and the April 2010 “Kharkov agreements”. There is also Gazprom’s system of treaties and agreements with European partners both on the gas supply and the construction of gas pipelines.

“And all these are trumps in the hands of the President of Russia, regardless of his name and political views. Could another president of the Russian Federation take a softer position towards Kiev? Yes, he can but only after he at full scale performs all techniques of hard negotiating, starting with the simplest formula of international relations: “Pacta sunt servanda” (“agreements must be kept”).

“The fact is that for any “non Putin” the mentioned documents are a starting point for a dialogue, while for Vladimir Putin they are an intermediate result of a long 12-year negotiating process with all its uneasy and obscure moments and nuances.

“As for the potential of Ukrainian-Russian relations, it is best characterized by the following public inquiry. 64% of Russians have a “very good” and “mostly good” attitude towards Ukraine (Levada Center, the end of January 2012), and this factor should be taken into account by any Russian president.”

Dmitro Dzhangirov is a journalist and Russia – East Europe expert

Source: Russia Insights www.russia-insights.com

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Oscar Aubert, political scientist and expert on West Europe, Russia and CIS, has stated that Ukraine and Russia are in a good place to further bilateral ties.

Aubert said: “Russia and the Ukraine have a long shared history. Russia sees Ukraine as part of its own identity. But Russia’s political elite has no wish to restore the USSR, and it clearly understands that this would be impossible. However, the Ukraine remains the elephant in the room. Its closest neighbour and transit to mainland Europe, the Ukraine plays a major strategic role in Russia’s role in and relations with the rest of Europe.

“Meanwhile, the defining objective of Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union has been to adopt a truly independent course from Russia and ‘return to European civilization’, whilst Russian interests in Ukraine remain manifold.

“In 2009 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev declared that for Russia, Ukrainians since the dawn of time have been and remain ‘not only neighbours, but a brotherly people’. Therefore he regarded it as an obligation on Ukraine’s part to maintain ‘tight economic cooperation’ and ‘solidly kindred, humanitarian ties’ with Russia.

“In more practical terms, Russia has not managed to construct a single coherent conception of how to bring its interests to bear on the reality that Russia and Ukraine are now two sovereign states.

“In a recent Chatham House paper, Alexander Bogomolov and Oleksandr Lytvynenko argue that for Russia, “maintaining influence over Ukraine is more than a foreign policy priority.

“Russia’s socio-economic model limits its capacity to act as a pole of attraction for Ukraine. As a result, Russia relies on its national myths to devise narratives and projects intended to bind Ukraine in a ‘common future’ with Russia and other post-Soviet states. These narratives are translated into influence in Ukraine through channels such as the Russian Orthodox Church, the mass media, formal and informal business networks, and non-governmental organisations.

“Russia’s soft power project with regard to Ukraine emphasises cultural and linguistic boundaries over civic identities.” ”This project they speak of underlines the importance of the Ukraine to Russia. Late year Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Nikolai Azarov in Novo-Ogaryovo to discuss the need to develop the investment component in trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Ukraine.

“The return of Vladimir Putin as President will be positive in securing closer ties between the two great nations, with Mr. Putin keen to target energy as a key component of any future agreement. Mr Azarov has said himself that Kiev is ready to seek compromise and “win-win solutions” in the gas issue.” Oscar Aubert is a sociologist, political scientist, an expert for West Europe, Russia and CIS

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International conference calls for closer bilateral ties between Europe and Russia following the return of Vladimir Putin as President of the Russian Federation.

A panel of senior European and Russian politicians has said that the likely return of Vladimir Putin as President of the Russian Federation will ensure “positive stability”, at an international conference in Venice today. Despite recent protests in Moscow, and protests across the major cities of Russia expected in the lead up to the election, the panel said that Mr. Putin is still the most popular politician in Russia.

H.E. Hon. Franco Frattini, former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy, said: “There is still some mistrust in Europe of Russia. But we should be the best friend that Russia has… Russia and Europe are too small to work individually. We must work together to have a global impact…Despite some critics the EU will be ready to recognize (Vladimir) Putin as leader.

Stability in Russia is an added value… Under the leadership of Putin Russia has moved forward. Further economic and political reforms are needed, but substantial progress has been made, especially if we compare the situation in Russia to 15 years ago”.

“The upcoming elections will mark an important time in our shared history. It will be a great opportunity to strengthen co-operation between EU states and Russia… I am confident that Mr Putin, the future President of Russia, will give the green light to a new agreement of partnership and co-operation. We must consider Russia not just a strategic partner, but a loyal friend.”

Speaking after Franco Frattini, Jose Maria Aznar, former Prime Minister of Spain, commented: “Russia is key for the stability of Europe. Russia will emerge strengthened from the upcoming elections… I believe Mr. Putin still has a project for Russia.”

The panel argued that of all the Presidential candidates Mr. Putin would be the most likely to bring “increased bi-lateral relations between Europe and Russia”, calling on further co-operation in the areas of economic and trade relations, energy security, international political relations and international security.

H.R. Yitzah Herzog MP, former Minister of Social Welfare, Israel, said: “We all ask ourselves what Russia will be like after the election. The answer is clear – stability is essential for the continuation of reform. Russia should adjust its position on the current key issues related to the Middle East.”

The panel called for the pace of discussions on bilateral relations to quicken, concluding that given the Eurozone crisis and the relative economic and political stability in Russia the Russian Federation has become an increasingly important neighbor and partner to Europe.

Helen Teplitskaia, President of the American-Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, stated: “The increase in Europe-Russia trade shows that the two are coming closer together… However, the ghost of the Cold War still prevails for many in Europe. The more Russia is pushed away from the West, the closer it gets to China.”
“Russia’s WTO accession will be beneficial for Europe,” she added.

Organized by prominent Italian organization “Fondazione Alcide De Gaspari”, with the support of a Russian think tank “The Institute of International Integration Studies”, the conference, entitled ‘The Russian Presidential elections: European expectations’, was held at Isola di San Servolo, Venice.

Speakers at the conference included H.E. Hon. Franco Frattini, former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Jose Maria Aznar, former Prime Minister of Spain; Marino Zorzato, Member of the Italian Parliament; Alexander Babakov, Member of the Russian State Duma and deputy Co-Chairman of the Duma Inter-parliamentary.

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Konstantin Zavinovsky: ”Russia could risks losing its sovereignty and identity in result of protests.” Russia could face losing a hard earned identity, destabilization and come out a weakened country if ‘outside supported’ protests should continue says ‘Geopolitics’ editor Zavinovsky.

Last December, as the first protests of the Russian opposition were taking place, U.S. Senator and former presidential candidate John McCain challenged Prime Minister Vladimir Putin by predicting a wave of the so-called “Arab Spring” in Russia. In fact, despite being a phenomenon caused by socio-political situations in the particular countries concerned, the so-called “Arab Spring” has not evolved without outside interference.

It obviously comprises of some elements resembling what are known as the “color revolutions” that have deprived a number of countries of their national sovereignty and historic identity. These revolutions take their name after a particular variety of brand names, usually referring to a color or a flower and easily identifiable by the public, which reveals the involvement of highly skilled public relations experts.

The most notorious among these “color revolutions” have occurred in Georgia, Ukraine and Yugoslavia, with less successful attempts in other countries as well, such as Belarus. The countries involved are almost always ex-Soviet republics, or other states ruled by governments that are on friendly terms with Russia.

The aim seems to be to replace these governments with new ones that would be hostile to Moscow and allied to Washington as it is from there that the funding as well as technical support – “stage direction” – comes from.

There are currently 5 candidates running in the presidential elections in Russia, and the one who is to become the head of state will be responsible not only for the destiny of Russia itself, but also for the stability of its international relations. ”Prokhorov’s potential victory in the March elections; a US-style liberal, would mean the success of the “snow revolution” – or perhaps “frost” which, in turn, could lead to bringing Russia into the hands of the United States” claims Zavinovsky.

”Prokhorov, a successful manager, would run the country as an enterprise or a business according to the logic of the market, but not as a state that needs well-defined social policies. In the case of a win by Communist party member Zyuganov, the threat to national sovereignty would be eliminated, but likewise would be the prospect for economic growth of Russia, as Zyuganov is nothing but the residue of the communist past that made the Russian economy militarized and backward.

With Zyuganov as president, the international equilibrium would be broken, since he is not disposed for a constructive dialogue with the U.S. Mironov is a supporter of the protest and, as he stated yesterday, he is prepared to include Alexei Navalny, one of the main architects of the opposition in the streets, into his government.

So, if the former Chairman of the Federation Council of Russia becomes President of the Russian Federation, his government would comprise of a man whose activity has been funded by the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the NGO linked to the CIA and the U.S Congress.

Zhyrinovsky is a nationalist and a bitter enemy of the United States, so in case of his victory, he would do away with all the opposition funded by the U.S., but his nationalism would make it impossible to hold a dialogue at the international level on the basis of equality.As a result, Putin seems to be the only Russian politician capable of ensuring the sovereignty and independence of his country in the face of external threats and at the same time he is ready for a constructive dialogue with other international players.

Which is confirmed by the words of the U.S. ambassador Michael McFaul in his interview to the Russian daily “Kommersant “, in which he declares his readiness to proceed with the “reset” of US-Russian relations, if Putin is elected president in the elections the 4th of March.”

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As Russia’s Gazprom admitted that it had cut gas supplies to Europe at the height of the current cold spell, Ukraine said it is ready to help Russia deliver the necessary volumes of gas to Europe and called for greater European cooperation to modernise its gas transport infrastructure and improve energy security for the EU.

Italy, Austria and France were reporting cuts of as much as 30 percent of Russian gas over the weekend. Analysts have said that Ukraine, which as a transit country accounts for more than 70 percent of Russian gas shipments to the EU, is as much a victim of Moscow as the rest of Europe.

Gazprom Deputy Chief Andrey Kruglov was reported to be conferring with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who has in the past both threatened and implemented cuts to Ukraine and the EU.

Ukraine’s Energy Minister Yuri Boiko was quoted by news agencies saying that shipments to Ukraine had fallen in recent days. Gazprom admitted this but claimed the reason was Russia’s enhanced need because of the cold. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych meanwhile called on energy market participants to seek joint solutions for the future.

“We rely on our European partners, international financial institutions to implement the agreements on their participation in upgrading Ukraine’s gas transportation system,” the Ukrainian president said at the 48th Munich Security Conference on Friday.

He stressed that the situation showed the need for cooperation among all parties and respect for clear, transparent and fair rules of the game in the energy sector. There was a need to balance the interests of Ukraine as the main transit country, Russia as the main supplier, and the European Union as a consumer, President Yanukovych said.

In his speech at the Munich conference, the Ukrainian president also spoke of what he termed the one-sided conditions of the 2009 gas contract with Russia. In 2009, then Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, signed a multi-billion and multi-year dollar gas deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia that is currently forcing Ukraine to pay more than $500 a cubic meter for Gazprom’s supply of gas, even though world market prices are around $400 per cubic meter.

Analysts in Washington are concerned that Russia may be using its Gazprom supplies to pressure Ukraine to submit to closer Soviet-style ties. They fear that Moscow may try and use its energy supplies and pricing to stop President Yanukovych from his announced aim of signing an Association Agreement with the EU and developing closer ties with Europe.

The recent trial and conviction of Opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko, who was herself a one-time business partner of Russia in the natural gas sector, focussed on her signing of the high-priced 2009 deal with Gazprom without any Cabinet consultation when she was Prime Minister. It was that same deal which is now causing Ukraine to find itself in financial difficulty and a potential hostage of Moscow’s leverage.

 
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Boris Gryzlov, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, is stepping down from his post as speaker of the lower house of Russia’s parliament, their political party said on Wednesday. However, he will keep his executive position in Putin’s United Russia party.

Gryzlov resigned after fraud allegations came out during the parliamentary elections in early December. These allegations gave way to the biggest anti-government protests seen in twenty years. Gryzlov believes he achieved a lot of what he set out to do during his eight years in the Duma. He plans to continue leading the political party’s supreme council and stated that he is, “ready to accept a post determined by the president.”

The candidate that will be Gryzlov’s replacement will be nominated next Saturday. Tens of thousands of people protested against the results of the election on Saturday that brought Putin’s United Russia party to power again. There was an estimated 25,000 protesters in Moscow, the police said, but organizers said there were 40,000.

Whether the police are correct or the organizers, either number would qualify as the largest protest in the Russian capital in two decades. The protesters believe the election results were rigged and were not afraid to protest in freezing temperatures in other Russian cities as well.

They shouted, “Putin out!” Another protest is scheduled to occur on Christmas Eve, December 24, which will be three days after the new parliament holds its first session. After a day of protests, President Dmitry Medvedev said he wanted the allegations to be investigated. The statement on his Facebook page read, “I agree neither with the slogans nor the statements voiced at the protests.

Nevertheless, I have ordered checks into all the reports from polling stations, regarding the compliance with the election laws.” Many people criticized his post on Facebook. “It’s awful,” Elena Panina wrote. “Really. He was drunk when he wrote that, or he didn’t read what he wrote. … What slogans does our president disagree with? ‘We are for fair elections?’”

Some pro-government demonstrators came out on Monday, but their numbers were not as vast as the protesters that showed during the weekend. Mikhail Prokhorov, a Russian billionaire that owns the New Jersey Nets basketball team, announced on Monday that he will run for president of Russia next year.

There was some speculation as to whether he was going to run with the Kremlin’s tactic backing, to make people believe that there was a real contest for president, or whether he genuinely wants to defeat Putin.

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